Mid -Winter Drought Continues
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Despite the lack of rainfall, moss continues to survive and grow on the rooftops. Doesn't look like a good wetting any time soon as high pressure continues its winter grip on the Pacific Northwest.NOWCAST - More of the same with strong east winds in east county Thursday and a bit cooler with highs in the 40's Thursday and Friday. Then warmer over the weekend and continued dry. Models continue to show a breakdown of the blocking high next week but I think the storm track will be directed to the south and north with our region left basically high and dry. Stay tuned.
FORECAST - Tonight: Clear. Lows 20 to 30. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-48. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph increasing late to 30-40 mph.
Thursday night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 20 to 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph gusts to 15 to 25 mph.
SEVEN DAY TREND - Dry, increasing clouds, risk of a shower late in the period but mainly dry. Way above seasonal highs on Monday, perhaps to 60 degrees in some areas. Frosty at night.
OUTCAST - Ok, I haven't been on my soapbox for a while so I guess I will pass on some random weather thoughts and stay on topic here. I went to the winter meeting at OMSI Tuesday night to see the panel discussion between Phil Mote of Washington and George Taylor of Oregon. These two climatologists gave their perspective on climate change and global warming. BTW, global warming is a very loose term and misleading in so many ways. Anyways, I will bash The Oregonian for publishing such a one sided story against George Taylor in their Monday January 29 edition. You can read it at: http://www.oregonlive.com/oregonian/stories/index.ssf?/base/news/1170041105154270.xml&coll=7
Anyways, Mote took the stand that man is causing the earth to warm up more than any other cause. He is also one of the authors of an international panel of scientists which will release a new assessment to the government later this week of the effects of global warming. He said, "Earth's climate is changing and the human influence on climate has emerged." He also added that future climate change will be much bigger. Mote reported that carbon dioxide is up 37% and methane gas is up 15% causing warming of one-half degree per decade for the next fifty years.
The packed auditorium of over 400 people at OMSI caused the room to warm up itself that building officials had to turn the AC on. Too bad it isn't that easy to turn off the earth's apparent warm up! Mote remarked, "Global climate change is now unnatural. The affects of urbanization and greenhouse gases caused by humans in the past 40-50 years is the number one cause."
Taylor on the other hand agreed the earth's climate is warming up but that it is a natural cycle of warming and cooling and graphs depicting this warm up should be taken from a cool minimum to a cold minimum or warm maximum to a warm maximum and not from the last cool down to the present. If you show the overall temperatures this way you can clearly see it is a cycle of ups and downs said Taylor.
He had a "Yes, but" approach to the issues of glacier melting and sea level rises. There are lots of natural causes affecting global warming and one big factor is solar irradiance (brightness). He also stated that the glaciers in Glacier National Park had their most rapid melt between 1850-1930 and is melting much slower now. Also, sea level rises were greatest prior to 1954 and much less since. Taylor adds, "Sea levels are rising but leveling off and showing signs of slowing down." He does admit that we need further studies of natural changes to the worlds climate.
So the debate goes on and on. Taylor appears to be on the sidelines by himself and perhaps a small group of others that take a different stance on climate change. Myself, I tend to agree with Taylor's thoughts and that man has less affect on global climate than natural causes and normal climate cycles. Yes, man can influence micro-climates within local urbanization but urbanization accounts for less than two percent of the earth surface. The studies that experts use to substantiate their theories are greatly skewed by way of physics and statistics. Models are all over the place and anyone can present data in a format that can back up their claim.
However, the general public is being misled over this political hot potato. As far as temperatures warming up let's look at data collection. Since the mid 1990's weather records are taken from automatic electronic digital temperature sensors. These instruments respond much quicker to warmth while the old mercury filled thermometers have a much slower response time due to their slow rise. So of course overall temperatures may appear to be warmer over the last ten years or so but look at the reliability of the data collection. These stations don't measure snowfall, have on going equipment failures and are located in typical heat islands at airports. Rural locations are the best to place studies on. Then there is the issue of CO2 and water vapor.
Bottom line about the meeting is that the format was not inclusive to a scientific meeting due to the abundance of the general public and the way questions were handled. Secondly, George Taylor came to the meeting after an unfair bashing by The Oregonian and was perhaps more reserved than he could have been with Mr. Mote. There are serious questions that need to be asked of the global warming advocates and that in itself will probably add a degree or two to the earth's temperature. It is a hot topic, heated debate, and a burning issue for mankind that most likely we cannot do much about it anyways.
Global Warming: The Hottest Hoax Around?
http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/fiore/2006/08/hoax.htmlEL Nino? We are in a dry trend of sorts and I don't see any change any time soon. I think the rest of the winter will be drier than average with seasonal temperatures. Of course I am hoping for one more shot of cold and snow but time is running out as there are only a few more weeks of prime time for a good snowfall. Especially in this warm up we are apparently stuck in.
My Quote of the Day - "No matter how hot the topic is, there is always someone in the crowd with a cold shoulder." - Pat Timm
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 7:38 PM,
