Clear and Cool For Now, But Prepare For Snow And Cold This Weekend And Beyond
Tuesday, January 22, 2008NOWCAST - Clear and sunny today and Wednesday with chilly but not so cold overnight lows. Still down in the lower 20's wind sheltered areas and perhaps a teen reading in the colder locations. Highs in upper 30's to low 40's. Slight warming loft at 850mb and some downslope drift of east winds helping to warm the lower layers as well. Still, we have a large mass of cold and very dry air leftover from the surge of modified arctic air. Dewpoints are still in the teens and single digits. With weather systems going over the top of the ridge of high pressure, we will start to see some clouds late Wednesday and Thursday and a risk of some flurries Thursday although I believe the bulk of any moisture will remain to our west and not much inland penetration of moisture due to the upper wind flow and the very dry airmass. Still, a few flurries are possible.
OUTCAST - Okay, here is my thinking Tuesday afternoon: Looking ahead computer models are still not at complete agreement, are they ever? Anyways, a series of cold lows will be dropping down from the northwest and there is the matter of some very cold Siberian air (minus 60-70 degrees) that has to go someplace. A portion of this may get dragged into these weather systems and give a reinforcing shot of support for lowland snow. I believe we will have all snow later on Saturday through Tuesday of next week. Saturdays precipitation may start out as snow then a mix or even brief rain but turning to all snow by Sunday. It will be a snowy period with several inches possibly a foot of snow here before all is said and done. Naturally one can not say this with 100 percent confidence because it is just too far away to be sure and as you know, the ingredients for a good snow here at city levels has to be just right. So anything could happen from rain, a mix or a cold general snow. I go for the latter and give it a 70 percent projection. There, how is that for sticking my neck out? Perhaps I will have snow on my face - or not. Most forecasters will probably go the conservative route but with a possible cold air supply, low heights, upper wind flow and other insipid factors, that is my forecast and I'm sticking (as in "snow") to it.
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 1:40 PM,
