WeatherSystems

The following is a note from fellow weather watcher Rod Sager of Vancouver.

"Forecasting winter weather in Western Washington requires not a Science degree but a Theological degree because only God knows what is going to happen   Friday's forecast for this week was a foot of snow, Saturday it was downgraded to 2-4 inches, Sunday downgraded to minor snow with sleet and freezing rain then Monday the forecast changed to flurries with sleet and freezing rain and then as the Tuesday event unfolded it became sleet and freezing rain with no real accumulation at all. I love weather watching but I am glad I don't have to make a living doing it.  For all you meteorologists out there my hats off to you for working your tail off at a job that God loves to toy with you on."

Statement as of 9:42 PM PST on January 10, 2011


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to midnight PST Tuesday night for the greater Portland and Vancouver Metro areas...

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a mix of light snow and freezing rain... which is in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to midnight PST Tuesday night. The Winter Storm Watch for snow and freezing rain is no longer in effect.

* Timing... light snow will begin Tuesday afternoon... changing to freezing rain Tuesday evening. The freezing rain is expected to change over to rain around midnight... with temperatures warming through the early morning hours.

* Snow and ice accumulation... snow accumulations around an inch Tuesday afternoon and early evening... followed by a tenth to two tenths of an inch of freezing rain possible through midnight.

* Impacts... slick roads and surfaces due to ice accumulation leading to hazardous driving and walking conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving.

Anyways, the event tomorrow evening is looking much less serious with a short-lived spotty scenario with maybe snow but more like sleet and some freezing rain. But it warms up into the 40's by Wednesday morning so just rain. It may end up just being an after commute time overnight thing. So no big worries at this point.

Mt. St. Helen's at noon Monday.    ~Pat

As we get closer to the event models have gone through some changes and as usual the warm southerly flow wins out. Early yesterday it appeared the perhaps the low would track just south now it looks like it will head north. So our frozen variety precipitation will be short-lived but may mess up Tuesday evening commute and maybe Wednesday morning as well. Since we are withing 48 hours or so of this and all models are pretty much agreeing we start off with snow then freezing rain and then rain early Wednesday and maybe 50 degrees or better Thursday with lots more rain heading our way. Watching surface gradients and temperatures to our north and satellite photos verifies this well. At 9 pm Sunday Models continue to erode possibility of any freezing precipitation so will be interesting to actually see what happens.  ~Pat

I am thinking more rain or showers later Thursday and Friday with a very strong cold front moving in and once again lowering snow levels where we could see a mix or even some wet snow showers about, certainly in our surrounding foothills. After that it gets cold again as east winds reappear ushering in some modified arctic air that will linger all of next week. We will then have to keep a weather eye out for the possibility of significant snowfall midweek. There will be plenty of cold air from the north and plenty of moist Pacific air and if they collide over us, well it will be dicey so stay tuned.

For sure it will get colder much like our last episode but this time around we may get a real snowfall about midweek next week. So enjoy the 'balmy' conditions and a slice of that Hawaiian pineapple late Thursday and Friday it won't last. Then we'll be back munching Hostess Snoballs (not really, does anyone really eat those?) I wouldn't be surprised looking at the models this evening that the Puget Sound Convergence Zone sets up and somewhere in the Seattle area gets a white covering on Saturday. Of course when it snows in Seattle it hardly ever does here. But our BIG chance is next week where we may ace out the Emerald City! The next big warm up may occur by the Martin Luther King holiday weekend but that is a ways out.

On Sunday, January 23 at the Washington Convention Center in Seattle the American Meteorology Society is hosting WeatherFest. For more information click here.

Wednesday's high was 41 degrees at my home the warmest so far this year ha ha. But still, I had my jacket liner in. It will be a close one on Thursday as the thermometer  inches up to the threshold of, "Pat-remove the liner" which is 50 degrees.         ~Pat

Happy New Year!!  At least we had some sunshine in the afternoon on New Year's Day after considerable cloudiness earlier. And it was cold once again. My low in the Salmon Creek area was a chilly 19 degrees much like the low on Friday morning. It was a far cry from just one year ago on January 1st. Vancouver had a high of 55 degrees and a low of 42 degrees, compare that with Saturday's high in Vancouver of 36 degrees and low of 23 degrees. Looking back through my records it was the coldest New Year's morning in the past 18 years. My coldest January 1st was in 1979 with a minus 2 degrees at  my home.

Getting real cold in Siberia with lows approaching minus 95 degrees this coming week. Really? Yeah. Would be a  record for sure. A major pattern change may occur in a  week for cold and snowy for the NW. And the whole lower 48 will be in the grips of old man winter big time. Maybe. Always a maybe or disclaimer isn't there. Well forecasting weather isn't an exact science but things may be getting much, much colder soon.

Bottom line: cold and dry until mid-week with possible rain returning. Then a major change by mid month to possible really cold and snow. Or - it may just be rainy or windy.  ~Pat

Goodness, October is not quite gone yet and I had to don my winter jacket this morning heading out the door. Showers and 40 degrees already! At least we get a  break Wednesday and slightly warmer conditions. All it could do Tuesday was 52 degrees or so some seven degrees below normal. The Cascades got plenty of the white stuff but freezing levels go way up the next few days. Even if it didn't rain the rest of the month, Vancouver would still be above  average. We have seen several months in 2010 with above average rainfall reversing the trend of the last 4 or 5 years of below average rainfall. Even though we are in a strong La Nina pattern the odds of snow here in the lowlands may just be a fleeting moment if it does fall. Not much lowland snow occurs in La Nina winters but usually plenty in the mountains. I believe our pattern will oscillate between cold storms from the Gulf and others diving southward into California such as the pattern this week. Longer range models indicate maybe flooding rains next week but that is still a ways off. Trick or Treater's may get rained upon Sunday evening depending on moisture left behind from Saturday night system. Well, off and running enjoy your week.
                                                               ~Pat

George Dawson of Cascade Park took this photo recently and it offers the wandering thought, "Does the web of the spider foretell the winter to be?"

Perhaps after all for nature has been around much longer than man and knowingly has instinct for its survival. Man on the other hand can only prognosticate by looking at events of the past and present to predict the future. A little help from the earthly realm is at hand as climate often repeats itself.

A wise man observes the realm of the atmosphere and the land, sea, and critters below. The signs are there if you learn the language.                 -Pat

The yearly winter weather meeting is coming up in just 3 weeks!  Make sure you are there for the Oregon AMS meeting.  It’s always the highest-attended of the year…here is the press release, which you can also find on their website:

 Oregon Chapter American Meteorological Society

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

 Regional Weather Experts Will Once Again Descend On Portland To Predict This Coming Winter’s Weather!

 (Portland, Oregon – September 23rd 2010) – La Nina is back! The Portland International Airport recorded its wettest June in history this year, along with its coldest summer in 17 years. Records fell all across the Pacific Northwest this spring and summer. Is our record setting weather expected to continue into the winter months? What about our chances for low elevation snow?

 The Oregon chapter of the American Meteorological Society is proud to announce the 18th annual “What Will the Winter Be Like” forecast meeting. This year’s event will once again be held at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI), located at 1945 S.E. Water Avenue in Portland on Saturday, October 16th 2010 from 10 am to 12 noon. The meeting will be free, open to the general public and will also include our annual “snowflake contest” where attendees can take a guess at when the first snow will fall in Portland this coming winter. Prizes will be awarded to the winner(s) after the first snowfall. Last year’s meeting drew a record crowd of nearly 300 people from all across Oregon and Washington. In keeping with tradition, regional news media is again encouraged to advance and cover this informative event. This year’s guest speakers will include:

 Review of last winter (2009/2010)

Mark Nelsen, KPTV Fox-12 Chief Meteorologist

 Forecasts for this coming winter (2010/2011)

Tyree Wilde, NOAA-National Weather Service WC Meteorologist, Portland

George Taylor, Applied Climate Services Climatologist, LLC, Corvallis, Oregon

Pete Parsons, Oregon Department of Agriculture Meteorologist, Salem, Oregon

Kyle Dittmer, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Hydrologist-Meteorologist, Portland

This shot of the moon taken Monday evening is from the North Coast News, Ocean Shores, Washington. Tuesday evening is the full Sturgeon Moon and skies should be clear showing a wonderful moonrise.  And this after a clear sunny and should we say, hot day? Enjoy as it will be our last 90 degree day this month as cool weather settles in after Wednesday and even a  risk of a shower or too but mainly across northern Washington. Cool weather well into next week as computer models indicate tonight. It was cold in Clark County early Monday morning with 34.8 degrees near Moulton Falls and upper 30's in a few other outlying locations. And there were areas of fog. Yeah, a touch of autumn is in the air.   -Pat