Mid -Winter Drought Continues

Despite the lack of rainfall, moss continues to survive and grow on the rooftops. Doesn't look like a good wetting any time soon as high pressure continues its winter grip on the Pacific Northwest.


NOWCAST - More of the same with strong east winds in east county Thursday and a bit cooler with highs in the 40's Thursday and Friday. Then warmer over the weekend and continued dry. Models continue to show a breakdown of the blocking high next week but I think the storm track will be directed to the south and north with our region left basically high and dry. Stay tuned.

FORECAST - Tonight
: Clear. Lows 20 to 30. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-48. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph increasing late to 30-40 mph.

Thursday night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 20 to 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph gusts to 15 to 25 mph.

SEVEN DAY TREND - Dry, increasing clouds, risk of a shower late in the period but mainly dry. Way above seasonal highs on Monday, perhaps to 60 degrees in some areas. Frosty at night.



OUTCAST -
Ok, I haven't been on my soapbox for a while so I guess I will pass on some random weather thoughts and stay on topic here. I went to the winter meeting at OMSI Tuesday night to see the panel discussion between Phil Mote of Washington and George Taylor of Oregon. These two climatologists gave their perspective on climate change and global warming. BTW, global warming is a very loose term and misleading in so many ways. Anyways, I will bash The Oregonian for publishing such a one sided story against George Taylor in their Monday January 29 edition. You can read it at: http://www.oregonlive.com/oregonian/stories/index.ssf?/base/news/1170041105154270.xml&coll=7

Anyways, Mote took the stand that man is causing the earth to warm up more than any other cause. He is also one of the authors of an international panel of scientists which will release a new assessment to the government later this week of the effects of global warming. He said, "Earth's climate is changing and the human influence on climate has emerged." He also added that future climate change will be much bigger. Mote reported that carbon dioxide is up 37% and methane gas is up 15% causing warming of one-half degree per decade for the next fifty years.

The packed auditorium of over 400 people at OMSI caused the room to warm up itself that building officials had to turn the AC on. Too bad it isn't that easy to turn off the earth's apparent warm up! Mote remarked, "Global climate change is now unnatural. The affects of urbanization and greenhouse gases caused by humans in the past 40-50 years is the number one cause."

Taylor on the other hand agreed the earth's climate is warming up but that it is a natural cycle of warming and cooling and graphs depicting this warm up should be taken from a cool minimum to a cold minimum or warm maximum to a warm maximum and not from the last cool down to the present. If you show the overall temperatures this way you can clearly see it is a cycle of ups and downs said Taylor.

He had a "Yes, but" approach to the issues of glacier melting and sea level rises. There are lots of natural causes affecting global warming and one big factor is solar irradiance (brightness). He also stated that the glaciers in Glacier National Park had their most rapid melt between 1850-1930 and is melting much slower now. Also, sea level rises were greatest prior to 1954 and much less since. Taylor adds, "Sea levels are rising but leveling off and showing signs of slowing down." He does admit that we need further studies of natural changes to the worlds climate.

So the debate goes on and on. Taylor appears to be on the sidelines by himself and perhaps a small group of others that take a different stance on climate change. Myself, I tend to agree with Taylor's thoughts and that man has less affect on global climate than natural causes and normal climate cycles. Yes, man can influence micro-climates within local urbanization but urbanization accounts for less than two percent of the earth surface. The studies that experts use to substantiate their theories are greatly skewed by way of physics and statistics. Models are all over the place and anyone can present data in a format that can back up their claim.

However, the general public is being misled over this political hot potato. As far as temperatures warming up let's look at data collection. Since the mid 1990's weather records are taken from automatic electronic digital temperature sensors. These instruments respond much quicker to warmth while the old mercury filled thermometers have a much slower response time due to their slow rise. So of course overall temperatures may appear to be warmer over the last ten years or so but look at the reliability of the data collection. These stations don't measure snowfall, have on going equipment failures and are located in typical heat islands at airports. Rural locations are the best to place studies on. Then there is the issue of CO2 and water vapor.

Bottom line about the meeting is that the format was not inclusive to a scientific meeting due to the abundance of the general public and the way questions were handled. Secondly, George Taylor came to the meeting after an unfair bashing by The Oregonian and was perhaps more reserved than he could have been with Mr. Mote. There are serious questions that need to be asked of the global warming advocates and that in itself will probably add a degree or two to the earth's temperature. It is a hot topic, heated debate, and a burning issue for mankind that most likely we cannot do much about it anyways.

Global Warming: The Hottest Hoax Around?

http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/fiore/2006/08/hoax.html


EL Nino? We are in a dry trend of sorts and I don't see any change any time soon. I think the rest of the winter will be drier than average with seasonal temperatures. Of course I am hoping for one more shot of cold and snow but time is running out as there are only a few more weeks of prime time for a good snowfall. Especially in this warm up we are apparently stuck in.

My Quote of the Day - "No matter how hot the topic is, there is always someone in the crowd with a cold shoulder." - Pat Timm




-- posted by Pat Timm @ 7:38 PM,


100 Posts on the Wall


As you can see, ice still remains along side Multnomah Creek below Multnomah Falls. This photo was take Sunday afternoon while winds were gusting to 50 mph and wind chill temperatures in the 20's. Wind will remain very high Tuesday and Wednesday near hurricane force in the exposed ridges.


NOWCAST - Strong high pressure will rebuild over the region Tuesday after a weak low associated with clouds and light snow in eastern Washington slide off to the east. East winds will increase Tuesday and Wednesday and be downright blustery. Highs will be in the 45-50 degree range and drop into the 30's in windy areas and 20's in the calm ares overnight. No rain in sight.

FORECAST - Tonight: Clearing later on. Lows 30 to 35. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph...except east wind 15 to 30 mph near the gorge...gusts increasing to 45 mph late.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 45 to 50. Northeast wind 15 to 25 mph...except east wind 30 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph near the gorge and in east sections of Portland and Vancouver.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 20- 35. Northeast wind 15 to 20 mph. Near the gorge...east wind 25 to 30 mph. Winds increasing to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph towards morning.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 45 to 50. Northeast wind 20 to 30 mph. Except east wind 35 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph near the gorge and in east sections Portland and Vancouver.

OUTCAST - I added my weather station here in Salmon Creek near I205/I5 junction which is in real-time mode. Just click 'My Weather Station' under my photo.

Here is an update about that name the wind storm contest held by the NWS in Seattle. "
The Name the Wind Storm contest ended at 12 Noon PST on January 4, 2007. We received over 5000 messages with nominations for naming the wind storm, an overwhelming and impressive response. A committee of National Weather Service (NWS) Seattle staff members are plowing through all the entries. It is anticipated they will finish this process and select a winner soon. The winning name will be announced at the Pacific NW Weather Workshop at the Seattle NOAA campus on Friday March 2nd at 1 PM. For those who participated in the contest, thank you for your entry and good luck!"

A good panel discussion on climate change and global warming will be held tomorrow night at 7pm at OMSI between the two state climatologists from Oregon and Washington. You are welcome to attend the meeting held by the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorology Society.

OFF TOPIC - Today's Post is number 100 in as many days. My how time flies! Thanks for reading my blog and I hope it gives you some insight to weather and other random thoughts.

I thought I would post the lyrics of the Star Spangled Banner for the benefit of Hillary Clinton who appeared to maybe forget them during an appearance she made over the weekend.

Oh, say, can you see, by the dawn's early light,
What so proudly we hail'd at the twilight's last gleaming?
Whose broad stripes and bright stars, thro' the perilous fight,
O'er the ramparts we watch'd, were so gallantly streaming?
And the rockets' red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof thro' the night that our flag was still there.
O say, does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

On the shore dimly seen thro' the mists of the deep,
Where the foe's haughty host in dread silence reposes,
What is that which the breeze, o'er the towering steep,
As it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses?

Now it catches the gleam of the morning's first beam,
In full glory reflected, now shines on the stream:
'T is the star-spangled banner: O, long may it wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

And where is that band who so vauntingly swore
That the havoc of war and the battle's confusion
A home and a country should leave us no more?
Their blood has wash'd out their foul footsteps' pollution.
No refuge could save the hireling and slave
From the terror of flight or the gloom of the grave:
And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

O, thus be it ever when freemen shall stand,
Between their lov'd homes and the war's desolation;
Blest with vict'ry and peace, may the heav'n-rescued land
Praise the Pow'r that hath made and preserv'd us as a nation!
Then conquer we must, when our cause is just,
And this be our motto: "In God is our trust"
And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

My Quote of the Day - "Moses said, 'Let my people go'. I'll add 'people, let go'." - Pat Timm


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 1:30 PM,


Sun & Wind Continue

Sunday was another sunny and windy day around the area as strong high pressure holds. A large Rex blocking pattern will keep storms at bay for the next five days at least. It was real windy in the gorge but sunny as you can see in this photo.


NOWCAST - More of the same is all I can say as a Rex block pattern is locked in. Things may change a bit in a few days but we would the have an Omega block over us. Bottom line: Fair weather with east winds to some degree and DRY. If you have winds now, you will keep them, if you don't, you won't. Cold at night.

FORECAST - Today: Sunny. Highs around 50. East wind 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph near the Columbia gorge.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows 25 to 30. East wind 5 to 15 mph except gusting to 25 mph near the gorge.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 45 to 50. East wind 5 to 15 mph except gusting to 25 mph near the gorge.

Monday night: Mostly clear. Lows around 30. East wind 10 to 15 mph...except east wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 mph near the Columbia gorge.

OUTCAST - Reminder: You are welcome to attend the Oregon chapter of the American Meteorology Society meeting at 7pm this Tuesday at OMSI. There will be a panel discussion about climate change and global warming. George Taylor state climatologist from Oregon, and Phil Mote, Washington state climatologist will be the panel. Should be a lively discussion. Please join us!

OFF TOPIC - I ventured over to the Portland Art Museum Saturday and went through the Quest for Immortality exhibit of some 115 objects from ancient Egypt. It was very interesting to me as I have an avid interest in ancient Egyptology. Being inches from some of the relics was fascinating. The most wow to me was a mummy and a bracelet, and necklaces of an Egyptian queen. Gazing at the bracelet and thinking that actually it was worn by a woman some 3300 years ago was mind boggling. It was well worth the admission price. I would encourage you to go see this before it goes away March 4th. For info on the web go to : http://portlandartmuseum.org/egypt/index.asp

My Quote of the Day - "Love your enemies along with your friends and you may increase your allies." - Pat Timm


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 10:55 AM,


Fair, Friendly Skies

This is me when I was a youngster going out to record the temperature. Aw, just kidding, not me but could have been. In the 'old' days I had to go outside to the instrument shelter and read the temperature, use a sling Psychrometer for the humidity and dew point etc. Nowadays, electronic weather station and computer do it all for me 24/7. Those were the days!


NOWCAST - Fair skies rule the Northwest with only bits and pieces of clouds passing over head. Strong east winds continue today and Sunday for brisk conditions. temperatures will still rebound from freezing overnight lows into the 50's. Dry for the rest of the month!

FORECAST - Today: Sunny variable clouds at times. Highs around 50. East wind 10 mph...except east wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph near the gorge.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 25 to 35. East wind 10 mph.. Except east wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph near the gorge.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 50. East wind 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph near the gorge.

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows 25 to 30. East wind 10 mph...except east 20 to 30 mph near the gorge.



-- posted by Pat Timm @ 10:36 AM,


Let the Sunshine In!


From sunrise to sunset skies were basically clear in the Clark County area as east winds swept the low clouds and fog away by sunrise. Yeah!

NOWCAST - When I went to bed Thursday night it was cloudy and foggy, when I got up it was clear! Thanks to east winds. More of the same through the weekend.

FORECAST - Tonight: Clear. Lows 25 to 35. East wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph near the gorge.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 45 to 50. East wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph near the gorge.

Saturday night: Clear. Lows 25 to 35. East wind 5 to 10 mph.. Except east wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph near the gorge.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 45. East wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph near the gorge decreasing in the afternoon.

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows 25 to 30. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

OUTCAST - Just look at the Friday afternoon infrared satellite photo. Sure looks like an El Nino pattern. Large blocking ridge with fair weather slated for a while.



-- posted by Pat Timm @ 2:59 PM,


Lost in The Fog

Skies did not clear today as dense fog and low clouds lingered all day. Temperatures remained in the 30's after dropping into the 20's causing freezing fog early on.

NOWCAST - I thought the fog would burn off but the lack of any wind and increasing clouds overhead trapped the cold cloudy weather below at the surface. Shucks after three days in the 50's and sunshine it reminded me of last week when we were in a deep freeze. Brrrr.... Skies should break up Friday afternoon a bit as some east winds begin to push through our way. Weekend looks very dry and so do the next seven days or so.

FORECAST - Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Stagnant air advisory. Lows around 30. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Near the gorge...east wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight.

Friday: Areas of morning fog and low clouds...then mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. East wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 25 mph near the gorge.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows 25 to 35. East wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 20 to 25 mph near the gorge.

OUTCAST -

The National Weather Service Office in Seattle has developed some great online education slide shows concerning certain weather topics. Go to www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/ and click on educational slide show page. Current sessions include Puget Sound Convergence Zone, Pacific NW windstorms, and history of the National Weather Service. In the wind storm presentation they give an explanation of the December 14, 2006 wind storm. Check it out! Also, for EVERYTHING you want to know relating to science check out the US Governments web page which thousands of sites of information. Go to: http://science.gov/




-- posted by Pat Timm @ 7:30 PM,


Mid Week Weather

Fair weather reigns with sunshine and no rain! Frosty in morning but other than that very pleasant.


NOWCAST - High pressure holds strongly over the west coast and will for the foreseeable future. An upper level low is spinning off California and could spread clouds or sprinkles northward the next few days but low risk. Bottom line, more of the same.

FORECAST - Tonight: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows around 30. Northeast wind 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 25 mph near the gorge decreasing after midnight.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Areas of fog in the morning. Highs 45 to 50 light wind..

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows 30 to 35. Light wind. Near the gorge...light wind becoming east 15 to 20 mph after midnight.

Friday: Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs around 45. Light wind becoming east 10 mph in the afternoon. Near the gorge...east wind 15 to 25 mph.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows around 30. East wind 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 25 mph near the gorge.

OUTCAST - Lots of interesting cloud formations Wednesday afternoon with high and middle clouds passing through our area quite quickly. Abundance of Mares tails in the cirrus band that moved through. Strong upper winds blow the cirrus clouds into wispy curls like the tail of a horse. This was followed by a mackerel sky which develop from cirrus clouds as they begin to lower and clump together. And then finally a patch of alto cumulus and then the setting sun. What a wonderful day for cloud watching and sunshine basking! It looks like January will go into record books as a very dry month. Temperatures were once again in the 50's, three days in a row now. Wow! No cold or snow on the way either. Maybe for Valentine's Day?

OFF TOPIC - The following is a poem I wrote about winter break and a fourth grade student on the ice:

A Winter Break

By Pat Timm

School was out.

The holiday was near.

I told my parents,

Just to be clear,

I was going to ice skate

Without any fear.

I went to the pond.

Two friends tagged along.

The ice was solid,

Frozen hard as a board.

I put on my skates,

Sharp as swords.

I sat near the edge

And my knees got the shakes.

My friends led me on,

So I started to rise.

Then guess what happened,

To my surprise?

I was up and moving.

It was pretty smooth!

My friends went ahead.

They showed me the way.

They looked so brave

My skates buzzed the whole day.

The ice flew into my long waving hair.

I forgot all my fears

And joined the skating parade.

The cool, crisp air made the sun so bright.

Oh, my friends and I were a joyful sight!


My Quote of the Day - "A knock on the door remains to be seen." - Pat Timm


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 9:43 PM,


Temperatures in the mid 50's

Temperatures this afternoon reached into the mid 50's. I had 56 degrees at 2 pm under sunny skies. Wow! Doesn't get any better than this in January.

NOWCAST - The rest of January may go out on the dry side as it now appears the next weather system slated for Thursday and Friday will head towards southern Oregon. The weekend looks nice at this point. Temperatures remain mild.

FORECAST - Tonight: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 30 to 35. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 20 mph near the gorge.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 50-55. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 20 to 30 mph near the gorge.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Lows 30 to 35. East wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 10 to 20 mph near the gorge.


OUTCAST-

...2006 PORTLAND YEAR IN REVIEW

WARM AND WET BEST DESCRIBES THE WEATHER FOR PORTLAND IN 2006 THOUGH
MOST OF THE WET PERIOD OCCURRED IN THE EARLY AND LATTER PART OF THE
YEAR THE HEAT PERSISTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. A LITTLE WARMER
HERE AND A LITTLE WARMER THERE TRENDED TO AN OVERALL WARM
YEAR...ABOUT ONE AND ONE HALF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PORTLAND BROKE NUMEROUS
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION RECORDS IN 2006...SOME EXCEEDED THE
ALL TIME WETTEST MONTHS ON RECORDS FOR THEIR MONTHS. TWO
MID SUMMER HEAT WAVES DROVE TEMPERATURES CLEAR OVER THE 100 DEGREE
MARK CAUSING MISERABLE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT PORTLAND. MUDSLIDES
PLAGUED THE MT HOOD AREA DURING THE NOVEMBER RAINS THAT BROKE THE
ALL TIME NOVEMBER RECORD RAINFALL AT THE PORTLAND AIRPORT AND SHUTTING
DOWN MAJOR HIGHWAYS FOR WEEKS. FURTHER...FLOODING WAS UBIQUITOUS
AROUND THE PORTLAND AREA MANY RIVERS EXCEEDING MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ON
MANY RIVERS AND CAUSED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN DAMAGE.



...RECORDS SET IN 2006...
====================================================================
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOW TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
================= ================ ======================
JAN 10 - 57
APR 15- 93 FEB 19 - 23 JAN 29 - 0.91
APR 21 - 0.74
MAY 15 - 93 FEB 20 - 22 MAY 21 - 0.74
JUN 25 - 101 JUL 12 - 0.45
JUN 26 - 102 NOV 5 - 1.12
JUL 21 - 104 NOV 6 - 2.53
OCT 12 - 78 NOV 7 - 0.94
NOV 6 - 68


===================================================================

...PRELIMINARY CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR THE PORTLAND AIRPORT 2006...

...TEMPERATURE DATA...

AVG AVG AVG DEPARTURE TEMPERATURE
MONTH HIGH LOW MEAN FROM NORMAL HIGHEST/LOWEST REMARKS
====================================================================
JAN 50.1 40.8 45.5 +5.4 58/34
FEB 49.3 34.7 42.0 -1.1 57/22
MAR 53.7 38.5 46.1 -1.1 66/29
APR 62.9 43.3 53.1 +1.9 81/36
MAY 70.2 49.3 59.8 +2.7 93/39
JUN 76.2 56.5 66.4 +3.7 102/52
JUL 82.5 59.5 71.0 +2.9 104/53
AUG 81.2 57.2 69.2 +0.7 94/50
SEP 77.7 52.7 65.2 +1.6 95/45
OCT 63.5 44.5 54.0 -0.3 78/30
NOV 52.5 42.3 47.4 +1.6 68/27
DEC 45.3 34.7 40.0 -0.2 60/25
====================================================================
ANNUAL 63.8 46.2 55.0 +1.5 104/22


HIGHEST TEMPERATURE...104 ON JUNE 21ST
COLDEST TEMPERATURE...22 ON FEBRUARY 20TH
LAST SPRING FROST DAY...MARCH 20TH
FIRST FALL FROST DAY...OCTOBER 30TH

...RAINFALL DATA...
TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE
MONTH PRECIP PRECIP FROM NORMAL REMARKS
================================================================
JAN 10.92 5.07 +5.85 4TH WETTEST
FEB 2.15 4.18 -2.03
MAR 2.96 3.71 -0.75
APR 2.46 2.64 -0.18
MAY 3.00 2.38 +0.62
JUN 0.93 1.59 -0.66
JUL 0.47 0.72 -0.25
AUG 0.10 0.93 -0.83
SEP 0.86 1.65 -0.79
OCT 1.40 2.88 -1.48
NOV 11.92 5.61 +6.31 **WETTEST**
DEC 5.86 5.71 +0.15
================================================================
ANNUAL 43.03 37.07 +5.96

WATER YEAR(OCT 1 - SEP 30)...39.75 INCHES WHICH IS 2.68 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL

...WIND DATA...
STRONGEST WIND GUST...56 MPH FROM 090 (EAST) ON FEBRUARY 10TH.

OFF TOPIC - I was totally surprised by the way Democrats behaved during the Presidents speech this evening. I guess they were directed to be civil. In any case whether genuine or not, it was refreshing not to hear a bunch of booing and such. The house really cleared out fast after the speech and of course the Democrats response was as expected. I sincerely hope the two parties can unite and get some things done that will help all of us. Sad to hear first thing tomorrow they will introduce a bill against the President's troop increase. Well, back off, they can't do anything about it anyways, so my advice, get to work on domestic stuff and help out internal affairs! Enough said. All too sad how this war thing is going and the polls reflect that for sure. Harry Truman once said that what would have happened if they had polls back when Moses was doing his thing in Egypt? Makes you wonder.

My Quote of the Day - "The best way to read other's expressions is to look them in the eye with genuine interest." - Pat Timm


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 2:31 PM,


Fifty Is Nifty!

Monday afternoon temperatures and a spot of sun gave spring fever to some. The mercury reached 50 degrees or better around much of Clark County.


NOWCAST - Benign weather tonight and Tuesday as high pressure pushes the jet stream northward, Rain returns briefly later in the week for a couple of days, then nice for the weekend.

FORECAST -
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog forming late. Lows around 30-35. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 45 to 50. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 10 to 20 mph near the gorge.

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 30 to 35. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 10 to 20 mph near the gorge.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs around 45. East wind 5 to 10 mph...except 20 to 25 mph near the gorge.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Lows 30 to 35. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

OUTCAST -
CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW DEPTH INFORMATION
NORTHWEST WEATHER AND AVALANCHE CENTER SEATTLE WASHINGTON
January 15, 2007

DATA IN INCHES, -99 DENOTES MISSING DATA

CURRENT CLIMATE PER CENT LAST THRU 2006 THRU 2006
DEPTH AVERAGE OF NORMAL YEAR MAX/YEAR MIN/YEAR

HURRICANE 118 66 179 74 111/2000 10/1981
MT BAKER 149 108 138 134 180/1971 15/1981
STEVENS 99 72 138 81 146/1969 6/1981
SNOQUALMIE 83 65 128 83 123/1969 0/1981
STAMPEDE -99 71 -99 -99 179/1972 0/1981
MISSION 53 36 147 48 63/1995 12/1981
CRYSTAL 86 48 179 70 91/1971 3/1981
PARADISE 130 111 117 135 216/1969 31/1981
WHITE PASS 66 44 150 50 80/2000 0/1981
TIMBERLINE 122 102 120 120 170/1975 10/1981
MEADOWS 102 87 117 110 144/1989 0/1981

THIS TABLE PRODUCED ON THE 1ST AND 15TH BETWEEN 15 NOVEMBER AND 1
MAY.

AVERAGES, MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS EARLY AND LATE IN THE SEASON MAY BE
INACCURATE DUE TO LIMITED DATA.

RECORDS BEGIN: HURRICANE 1979, MT BAKER 1926, STEVENS 1939,
SNOQUALMIE 1929, STAMPEDE 1943, MISSION RIDGE 1970,
CRYSTAL 1967, PARADISE 1926, WHITE PASS 1976,
TIMBERLINE 1973, MT HOOD MEADOWS 1974.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 3:13 PM,


Liquid Precipitation is Back

Does this look familiar? Been a while since we had raindrops instead of snowflakes falling from the skies. More raindrops a possibility in our future but nothing too heavy.



NOWCAST - We saw a bit of rain early Friday and again Friday evening amounting to .27 inches as of 10 pm. A little more than what I thought but not too bad. Perhaps another round of rain Saturday and then drying on Sunday. Weather remains rather quite with offshore flow next week and some dry weather as well. Long range models hint that we could have another bout with snow and cold. But that is a week out so stay tuned.

FORECAST - Tonight: Showers this evening...then partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 35 to 40. Light wind...becoming southwest wind 5 to 10 mph by midnight.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog. Chance of showers. Highs around 45. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Patchy fog in the evening...then areas of fog after midnight. Lows 30 to 35 light wind..

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning. Highs near 45. Light wind...becoming east wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 30 to 35. Light wind...except east wind 15 mph near the gorge.

OUTCAST - With the recent cold weather around the country everyone is talking about global warming. Amazing isn't it? Well, one reader sent me these cartoons that tell it all. If you haven't seen them, enjoy!












-- posted by Pat Timm @ 10:36 PM,


Boy, Isn't 40 degrees Great?

The snow melt is on here in Clark County and that means snowmen as well. Unless, of course you have one as big as you see here. This big guy is sitting in a neighborhood in Anchorage, Alaska and I am sure he will last well until spring time. The neighbors report they are getting tired of all the traffic going by to view the Frosty King.

NOWCAST - Well, it is back to normal whatever that is but our bout with snow is over for a while. Clouds, spotty rain and seasonal temperatures are on tap the next several days as high pressure maintains its hold.

FORECAST -
Tonight: Cloudy. Areas of fog...locally dense. Slight chance of rain after 3 am. Lows near 30. Light wind...except east 10 to 20 mph near the Columbia gorge. Spotty icy streets

Friday: Cloudy with morning fog. Chance of rain in the morning.. Then steady light rain by noon. Highs 40 to 45. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Near the gorge...east wind 15 to 25 mph..easing in the afternoon..

Friday night: Rain in the evening...then showers likely. Lows around 35. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

OUTCAST -

The recent bout of cold weather hitting the West Coast reached clear down to southern California where many communities had snowfall, the first since 1962. And the rest of the nation is locked in a deep freeze. Makes you really think about global warming. And speaking of climate change, I want to give you a heads up on an upcoming climate event of sorts. The local chapter of the American Meteorology Society is hosting a discussion on climate change at OMSI. It will be from 7-9 pm on Tuesday, January 30. The meeting is free and open to the public. It will feature Oregon State Climatologist George Taylor from OSU and Phil Mote, Washington State Climatologist from the U of W. It should prove to be an interesting discussion as both of these experts have their own opinions on climate change and global warming.

Off TOPIC - The Government is trying to tighten its hold on its citizens once again. A bill in Congress will require us bloggers to register with the Government if we endorse any resolutions or encourage our readers to contact their congressmen for certain issues. That would make me a lobbyist and if more than 500 people view my blog, well I must submit. What ever happened to the First Amendment? What me a lobbyist? I do voice my opinion and I suppose I may influence a few hardy souls but give me a break. I encourage you while I can do it legally to contact your congress and senate representatives to stop this nonsense.

MY Quote of the Day - "Going forward makes sense because if not, you'll have to do it anyways." - Pat Timm


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 3:34 PM,


It is Beginning to Snow...Again!

Myself and my granddaughter, Ocean ready to slide down the driveway yesterday. Don't I look happy?

NOWCAST - Well a little late posting today, had a bit of a head cold coming on but downed the goldenseal and echinacea and feel better tonight. Probably from staying up so late on snow watch so much. Gads! Well, It is snowing again here in Clark County at 9pm so I guess by waiting long enough the weather tells me what to say. I was going round and round whether any precipitation would fall and then what? Snow, freezing rain, sleet or rain? So, with that in mind some light snow at times tonight and early tomorrow. Trace to one inch maybe, maybe not. Further north you go the heaviest. At least that is what my thinking is right now....but may change at 2 am.

FORECAST - Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers then light snow late. Could be mixed with sleet or rain or freezing rain in some areas. Accumulations trace to one inch possible. Patchy fog. Lows 32. Light wind...except east wind 10 to 15 mph near the gorge.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain mixed with snow in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 35-40. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows around 32.


OUTCAST - So when will we get out of this cold snap? Soon I think but with a lack of any strong storms and south winds, very slowly. I would think by Sunday we should get back to seasonal normals. Another risk of light snow or mixed precipitation Thursday night into Friday if cold air remains. We saw some good melting today as east winds dies down and the cold air retreated a bit. Do you know we have had snow on the ground for a week now? Amazing.

There has been a lot of bashing and criticizing the weather forecasters over the recent snow forecast or lack of. In all fairness, I have said repeatably here that these local snow forecasts are usually a NOWCAST made a few hours before the onset of the snowfall. The storm the other day looked like it was splitting and some models had it holding together and others did not. It was apparent by 11 pm that it was going to dump on us but how do you get the wording out at midnight while everyone's sleeping? It would have been nice to have made a for sure call during the day, but it didn't pan out. And for you weather geeks that did wishcasting or predicting the snowfall ahead of time, it is not that easy when you are taking responsibility and forecasting to the general public. You can say whatever you wish in those weather chat rooms and blogs but for every snow forecast you call I am sure you bust a few as well. Everyone tries hard to make a good forecast including the NWS and TV Mets. So, take it easy as you criticize, do it respectfully.

The snow we had pushed all the way down to LA where it snowed in places that haven't seen snow since 1962. Blame it on El Nino!!! Bring on global warming, ha, ha. Sorry we will be paying the price in higher produces prices. Bummer. The rest of the country is getting its share of old man winter too. Makes our little snowfall seem puny compared to those large ice storms.

OFF TOPIC - I haven't spouted off in a while but I will keep it short tonight as my head is spinning again. Okay McDonald's you did it again. I took three of my grandkids in for a bite the other day. All was fine. My granddaughter reminded me that they have apple pies two for one dollar. So I go back to the counter and order three pies. The clerk says that will be two dollars and change. I said , wait a minute if they are 2 for $1 then it should be $1.50 plus tax. She says if you buy one it is 96 cents. So I said okay give me four! She then said they only had three left! I then said give me the last three you have for the $1.50 price, what are you going to do with one lousy apple pie? She said there was not an icon on her computerized cash drawer to do that! The manager just shook her head at me. I felt like Steve Martin in Father of the Bride when he was grocery shopping and only wanted eight hot dog buns to match the package of eight hot dogs. I was about ready to do an apple turnover when she said I could give you three cookies and the pie for a dollar. At this point the kids were yelling for dessert and I said okay. Whatever happened to having it your way or is that what the Burger King says? Who knows. I have enough pet peeves now I need a kennel to house all of them.

My Quote of the Day - "The best thing to do is usually the first thing that you think of." Pat Timm








-- posted by Pat Timm @ 9:02 PM,


Heavy Snow Pelts County



A snowy Tuesday morning in Clark County


NOWCAST - Snow is beginning to taper off to just snow showers this afternoon. Could see another inch in those showers but hit and miss. Freezing conditions until mid-day tomorrow. Maybe more snow Wednesday night/Thursday.

FORECAST - Today: Snow showers likely in the afternoon. Additional snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Highs near 32 degrees. East wind 10 to 20 mph...with gusts to 35 mph near the gorge. Wind becoming light in the afternoon...except east wind 5 to 10 mph near the gorge.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 25 to 30 light wind..

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Increasing highs clouds. Highs 35 light east wind..

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy chance of light snow late. Lows 25 to 30. Light wind...except east wind 10 to 20 mph near the gorge.


OUTCAST - Snow depths reported to me at noon today:

Salmon Creek 4 inches; Ridgefield, 6 inches; Camas 5 inches; Van Mall, 3 inches; Hazel Dell, 3.5 inches.

Models predicted that the storm would hold together but public forecasters decide it would split and dry up hitting the strong east winds. At 11 pm last night, it strengthened and move directly at us rather than slipping southward. Too bad it was seen at midnight as a big storm after all when everyone was sleeping, hard to get the word out. More comments later, gotta go outside and play!. Pat
SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS:

IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...
WOODLAND....................... 7 INCHES
LA CENTER...................... 6 (NEAR COWLITZ COUNTY LINE)
NEAR HOCKINSON................. 4 TO 5
WASHOUGAL...................... 5
LA CENTER...................... 5
BRUSH PRAIRIE.................. 4
BATTLEGROUND................... 3
VANCOUVER (SOUTHEAST).......... 3
VANCOUVER (WALNUT GROVE)....... 3
CAMAS.......................... 3


IN AND NEAR NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
SANDY.......................... 5 TO 6 INCHES
PORTLAND (LLOYD CENTER AREA)... 5
PORTLAND (LAURELHURST)......... 4
SCAPPOOSE...................... 4
ALOHA.......................... 4
PORTLAND (DOWNTOWN)............ 4
MULTNOMAH...................... 4
TROUTDALE...................... 4
FAIRVIEW....................... 4
PORTLAND (WEST HILLS).......... 4
BEAVERTON...................... 3 TO 4
GRESHAM........................ 4
LAKE OSWEGO.................... 4
TIGARD......................... 4
HAPPY VALLEY................... 3.5
PARKROSE (NE PORTLAND)......... 3.5
CORBET......................... 2 TO 4
NORTH PORTLAND................. 3
FOREST GROVE................... 3
ZIGZAG......................... 3
PORTLAND (NWS OFFICE ON 122ND). 3
PORTLAND (AIRPORT)............. 3
GLADSTONE...................... 2
GRESHAM........................ 2

COAST RANGE...
VERNONIA....................... 1 INCH

CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
MCMINNVILLE.................... 4 INCHES
SILVERTON...................... 3
AURORA......................... 2.5
WOODBURN....................... 2 TO 3
SALEM.......................... 2
JUNCTION CITY.................. 1
EUGENE......................... 0.5 TO 1 INCH





-- posted by Pat Timm @ 12:13 PM,


Snowfall Begins!


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
252 AM PST TUE JAN 16 2007

GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY..
GRESHAM...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...DALLAS...VANCOUVER..
BATTLE GROUND...WASHOUGAL
252 AM PST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO
AREAS AND THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY..

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
PST THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER
METRO AREAS AROUND 6 AM THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE
1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FEET COULD
BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BUT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY SNOW.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


Area Forecast For:
Greater Vancouver Area
...including Vancouver, Battle Ground, Yacolt, Camas and Ridgefield

Issued: January 16, 2007 03:23:53 PST

Today: Occasional snow in the morning...then a chance of mostly snow showers in the afternoon. Snow accumulation 1 or 2 inches.. Locally up to 3 inches above 1000 feet. Highs around 35. East wind 5 to 15 mph except to 25 mph near the gorge..becoming light in the afternoon..

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 25 to 30 light wind..


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 3:32 AM,


Chance of Flurries Tuesday



I have seen lots of robins lately and I think they got caught in the cold! Another bout with snow slated for early Tuesday!


NOWCAST -
We are enjoying another nice sunny day with highs reaching towards the 40 degree mark. It was very cold early Monday with teens in the calm areas and twenties in the windy areas. Clouds will increase ahead of a weak weather system tonight and there is a chance of light snow by the morning commute time. Temperatures will rise above freezing Tuesday but remain below normal.


FORECAST - Today
: Mostly sunny. Highs 35 to 40. East wind 5 to 10 mph...except 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph near the gorge.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 25 to 30. East wind 5 to 10 mph.. Except 15 to 25 mph near the gorge with gusts to 35 mph in the evening.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with light snow maybe mixed with sleet before sunrise. Accumulations trace to two inches. Highs in the thirties. East wind 10 to 15 mph...becoming west 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Possible icy streets early Wednesday. Lows around 30 light wind.

OUTCAST - This has been quite a ride weather wise with cold temperatures lasting a bit longer than last weeks computer models were forecast. But the is usually the case as they always try to warm things up too quickly. The cold dome of air over us is very thick and heavy and it will take a good change in pressure patterns to mix things up. The system coming in Tuesday is weak and most likely will not warm us up too much. Whatever moisture remains when it gets here should be snow but amounts will be light. Perhaps another postcard picture in Vancouver?

This cold air covers the entire western part of the US with record cold in California and the southwest. Records were broken early today that were standing for nearly fifty years!
This cold weather has penetrated as far south as Mexico with overnight temperatures in the 30s in Tijuana and Phoenix was in the 20s. Expect to pay higher fruit and vegetable prices as entire crops were wiped out in parts of California. I heard the avocado crop was a total loss, oranges and lemons were damaged and other tender crops like lettuce and such. Funny seeing photos of frost on the grass in Los Angeles.
What gets me is all the hype about global warming and you’ll remember last week when they had hot temperatures and Santa Ana winds and wildfires and now the deep freeze. The mercury in downtown Los Angeles hit 37 degrees shortly after sunup Monday, breaking the old record low set in 1932 according to the National Weather Service. Long Beach tied its old record of 33 degrees set in 1963. Los Angeles International Airport reached 35degrees breaking the old record of 36 degrees set in 1963. And how about 27 degrees in Burbank, three degrees in Lancaster and 12 degrees in Palmdale, all record lows. The coldest in nearly 50 years. There were reports from northern Nevada yesterday morning of 28 degrees below zero now that is cold!
Below zero temperatures were recorded in the Pacific Northwest as well with
Omak, Deer Park, Spokane and Coeur d'Alene hosting that honor. In
Oregon,
Redmond
, Meacham, Burns, Baker City, and Rome all were below zero Monday
morning.

I have seen lots of robins during our cold snap and reports from readers of spring
bulbs bursting upwards from the soil and some flowering trees showing their pink
colors already. Well, I think they for the most part got nipped in the bud the past
few days!



-- posted by Pat Timm @ 2:04 AM,


Sunny & Nice




View of Oregon Coast yesterday near Lincoln City






Area Forecast For:
Greater Vancouver Area
...including Vancouver, Battle Ground, Yacolt, Camas and Ridgefield

Issued: January 12, 2007 09:38:01 PST

Today: Sunny. Highs around 35. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 10 to 20 mph near the gorge.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 15. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 10 to 15 mph near the gorge decreasing.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs around 35. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy. A chance of flurries. Lows 20 to 25 light wind..


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 10:08 AM,


Clear And Cold

The snow is over for now folks and it sure turned Clark County into a winter wonderland in most areas. Clear skies tonight foretell a bitter cold Friday morning



NOWCAST - Skies are clearing this afternoon as the low pressure system responsible for the snow showers has moved to southern Oregon. Due to the showery nature some areas got dumped on and others just a trace of snow. Clear skies Friday and partly sunny Saturday. Gradual warm up especially at upper layers of the atmosphere.

FORECAST - Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 15 to 20 except 25 windy areas and locally around 10 outlying areas. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph...except along river, east wind 15 to 25 mph gusts to 40 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 35-40. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.. Except east wind 15 to 35 mph near the gorge.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Lows 15 to 20. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 20 mph near the gorge.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs 35 to 40. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Lows 20 to 25 light wind..

OUTCAST - Due to the nature of the snow fall Wednesday, some areas got hit hard and others just flurries. Here in Salmon Creek I had barely a half inch while Hazel Dell and Felida not far away had two inches. The biggest surprise were the snow amounts along the Oregon coast. Last night heavy snow squalls dumped a foot of snow at Manzanita just south of Cannon Beach. Other snow amounts are posted below. I don't foresee anymore snow any time soon even as we transition out of the cold air mass but as always, stay tuned. Gradual warm up above the surface but slower as east winds begin to blow. If you have a snow cover in your yard expect temperatures down in the 10-15 degree range otherwise, 15-25 degrees. Brrrr.....
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
100 PM PST THU JAN 11 2007


...HEAVY SNOW STRIKES PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...

A QUICK BLAST OF WINTER SETTLED DOWN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OREGON
DUMPING UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IN LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE COAST IN
ADDITION TO COATING MANY OTHER PLACES WITH A BLANKET OF SNOW.

THE FOLLOWING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
AS OF 1200 PM:

LOCATION AMOUNT (INCHES)
================================================================

...INLAND VALLEY...
WASHOUGHAL (900 FT)........................... 5
CAMAS (PRUNE HILL)............................ 4
PHILOMATH..................................... 4
BRUSH PRAIRIE................................. 3
HOCKINSON..................................... 3
JASPER........................................ 3
RIDGEFIELD.................................... 3
CAMAS (LIVINGSTON MT)......................... 3.5
SANDY......................................... 2.5
LACOMB........................................ 2
LEBANON....................................... 2
VANCOUVER (ORCHARDS).......................... 2
VANCOUVER (HAZEL DELL)........................ 2
VANCOUVER (VANCOUVER HTS)..................... 2
CAMAS......................................... 2
CAMAS (PRUNE HILL)............................ 2
KALAMA........................................ 2
SALEM......................................... 1.5
VANCOUVER (CASCADE PARK)...................... 1.5
CORVALLIS..................................... 1
SCAPPOOSE..................................... 1
SPRINGFIELD................................... 1

...COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...
BEACON ROCK................................... 4
CASCADE LOCKS................................. 3
CORBETT....................................... 1.5
STEVENSON..................................... 1.5
HOOD RIVER.................................... 1
BONNEVILLE DAM................................ 0.5

...THE COAST...
MANZANITA (ON THE BEACH)...................... 12
BAYSIDE GARDEN................................ 11
NEHALEM....................................... 9
CANNON BEACH.................................. 3
OCEAN PARK.................................... 2.5
CAPE FOULWEATHER.............................. 2
KLIPSAN BEACH................................. 1.5
KNAPPA........................................ 1.5

...THE COAST RANGE...
BLODGETT...................................... 8.5
VERNONIA (7 MI SSE)........................... 4
BUXTON........................................ 2
PUMPKIN RIDGE................................. 2
SUNSET SUMMIT................................. 2

...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...
HOCKINSON (1300 FT)........................... 3
SANDY......................................... 2.5
LEBANNON...................................... 1

...CASCADES...
WILLAMETTE PASS............................... 23
HOO DOO....................................... 15
LAUREL MOUNTAIN............................... 10
COOPER SPUR................................... 10
GOVERNMENT CAMP............................... 10
SKI BOWL...................................... 9
MT HOOD MEADOWS............................... 9
TIMBERLINE.................................... 7
LAUREL MOUNTAIN............................... 5
MT BACHELOR................................... 5
OFF TOPIC - Had to chuckle today with Portland talk radio chatting about Vicki Phillips and her decision to close the Portland Public Schools this morning. Clark County received much more snow than the greater Portland area did except the West Hills and streets were not that bad from what I understand. Over here, yes! Although I do agree with Lars Larson KXL talk host that they shouldn't close especially when Gresham, Parkrose and others on the east side where it was worse remained open, decisions on whether to close or not are based on several bits of criteria. From my knowledge, the overall road conditions and safety of students is dominate. The administration besides receiving this information from others who drive the street early on is their source of weather forecasting. Many school districts hire private weather companies to provide a detailed forecast for the district. So, in today's case in Portland, yes, the West Hills had snow and streets were dicy due to the terrain, but most of the city just had slush conditions or bare pavement. Wait two hours and have school would have been the best choice. I understand that was their first decision early on but with a weather update may have influenced their decision. However, they also take in consideration what the rest of the day will bring weather wise. Temperatures were suppose to stay around freezing and get even colder as northerly winds began to blow. Many private forecasters were passing that out even Andy Carson (KPTV) during Lars' broadcast was saying only 32 degrees today which is freezing for the high temperature! I am not sure who the PPS use nowadays but it may use the same company that Tom Potter and the City of Portland use (remember last November's snowy weather preparation?). If their forecast called for freezing temperatures all day then that is why they made that decision. Makes sense, if it stays at or drops to 32 degrees during the day things would indeed get icy. Never mind that it was above freezing in most of Portland proper.

I never predicted day time falling temperatures at or below freezing even though we did have an modified arctic air mass dropping down behind the snow. It just wasn't that cold. So I agree with Lars that they had no need to close schools, but my inside guess is they got a weather forecast from their consulting company that depicted freezing temperatures the rest of the day. Boy, that turned out to be a hot one.

MY Quote of the Day - "It is easy to be critical, but try and be respectful." - Pat Timm


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 3:36 PM,


More Snow Showers A Coming?


Snowing again at 11 pm in Salmon Creek abiet lightly. Enhanced area of clouds approaching northern Oregon coast right now and low over northern Washington drifting southward and could increase counter clock wise circulation and bring in more snow showers by early morning. Not done yet folks. A trace to one inch by morning in all areas. VERY ICY streets as well. Be careful! - Pat


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 11:01 PM,


Latest Snow Depths

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
800 PM PST WED JAN 10 2007

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...

THE FOLLOWING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS OF 800 PM:

LOCATION AMOUNT (INCHES)
================================================================
...INLAND VALLEY...
WASHOUGHAL (900 FT)............................5
CAMAS (PRUNE HILL).............................4
BRUSH PRAIRIE...................................3
HOCKINSON......................................3
RIDGEFIELD.....................................3
CAMAS (LIVINGSTON MT)........................3.5
VANCOUVER (ORCHARDS)...........................2
VANCOUVER (HAZEL DELL).........................2
VANCOUVER (VANCOUVER HTS).......................2
WEST HILLS.................................... 2
CAMAS..........................................2
KALAMA.........................................2
VANCOUVER (CASCADE PARK).....................1.5
CORVALLIS..................................... 1
SCAPPOOSE......................................1

COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...
CORBETT.......................................1.5
STEVENSON.....................................1.5
HOOD RIVER.....................................1

...THE COAST...
KNAPPA........................................ 1

...THE COAST RANGE...
BLODGETT.......................................4
BUXTON.........................................2
PUMPKIN RIDGE................................. 2
SUNSET SUMMIT..................................2

...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...
HOCKINSON (1300 FT)............................3
SANDY........................................2.5
LEBANNON.......................................1

...CASCADES...
GOVERNMENT CAMP............................... 7
TIMBERLINE.................................... 6
WILLAMETTE PASS............................... 6
LAUREL MOUNTAIN............................... 5
SKI BOWL...................................... 5
HOO DOO....................................... 3
MT HOOD MEADOWS............................... 3


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 9:47 PM,


Some Snow but not Much!

The snow plows were loaded and ready to go, but not much snow feel locally. Heaviest snow was in Puget Sound region, again !


NOWCAST - The last of the heavy snow showers are falling now at 7 pm with only light amounts overnight and then skies clearing out. This will cause some icy streets with moisture on the roadways. Clearing and cold Thursday and Friday with highs in the 30's and lows in the 20's, possibly teens outlying ares Friday morning.

FORECAST - Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few snow showers. Lows 20 to 25. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 30 to 35. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph

Thursday night.. Clear and colder. Lows 15 to 20. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 30 to 35. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 20 mph near the gorge.

Friday night: Mostly clear. Lows 20 to 25. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph...except east wind 15 to 20 mph near the gorge
Steve Pierce photo -

OUTCAST - The cold low pressure center I thought would slide over us today and bring sticking snow remained centered up to our north allowing just bans of snow showers to swing through. These melted in between with sunny periods. Heavy snow fell in many areas of the Puget Sound region and near the US/Canada border. A couple of good showers fell in Clark County at noon, 4 pm, and 6 pm. Snow amounts were generally a trace to one inch below 300 feet and 2-3 inches above. I drove out to Ridgefield High School at 4:30 pm and it was snowing like crazy and a couple of inches on the ground. A picture postcard scene for sure. There just wasn't enough over the water circulation to give us some real heavy showers. So, we have to wait once more for a good snow. When Seattle gets it, we generally do not and so it goes. Someday!

Here are some Clark County snow totals from the burst of snow between 5-7pm, as gathered from local internet blogs, personal friends and police scanner reports:

Vancouver's McLoughlin Heights: 2" (side roads covered)
Hazel Dell: 2"
Brush Prairie: 3"
Camas (Prune Hill area): 4"
Hockinson: 3"
Orchards: 2"
Ridgefield: 3"
North of Washougal at 900ft: 5" (unconfirmed)

That is the latest from Clark County!

Steve
Vancouver


OFF TOPIC - Gosh, I sure hate to talk politics but I watched President Bush give his speech tonight and have mixed feelings. I think allowing more troops will be good if they are allowed to kick those bums out of there. What we did in Somolia the other day is the way to go. Attack fast and wipe them out. Oh well, rather fight them there than here.

MY Quote of the Day - "Every time I forecast snow in these parts I can still see my dad shaking his head." - Pat Timm


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 6:44 PM,


Evening UPDATE

NOWCAST - Cold front has gone by and temperatures are lowering. Snowing at 7pm in Everett, Whidbey Island, and Port Angeles. The good batch of snow showers is still over Vancouver Island. I figure about 3 am for it to reach us. Dew points are falling into the twenties at Forks and up north. Real cold arctic air still in Alaska but starting to flow over into BC. We will get some of that later on. Quiet here for the next few hours and then snow showers after midnight and towards daybreak. 1-4 inches depending on elevation.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 7:08 PM,


Cold and Snow Still on Track

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
926 AM PST TUE JAN 9 2007


...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INVADES SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN OREGON.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY ABOVE 500 FEET...AND
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY IN LOWEST VALLEY
ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE
WILLAPA HILLS.COAST RANGE...AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS...STARTING DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

NOWCAST - Rain will be increasing later today and winds will increase out of the south. Balmy early then slowly falling temperatures tonight. Rain changes to snow overnight and on Wednesday. 1-4 inches then clearing and colder Thursday.

FORECAST - Today: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Breezy. Highs around 50. East wind 5 to 15 mph increasing to southwest 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Rain in the evening turning to rain and snow showers after midnight. Colder. Snow level 500 feet after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows 30 to 35. Southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Snow in the morning then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Colder. Snow accumulation of 1 to 4 inches.. Heaviest amounts above 500 feet. Highs around 35. West wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening...then partly cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Colder. Lows in the lower to mid 20s. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny and cold. Highs 30 to 35. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

OUTCAST - As of 8 am Tuesday the cold front was over Vancouver Island where it is 50 degrees at Victoria on the southern end and 32 degrees and moderate snow at Port Hardy on the northern end. This front will drop down during the day and we should see rain change to snow tonight. Amounts will be light UNLESS we see some secondary development which is highly possible. Then we could see advisory amounts of snow in the Clark County area. This will be a NOWCAST event so stay tuned to the weather forecast for the latest if something develops. Here is the following special weather statement from the NWS office in Portland for the local area.
...COLD WEATHER AND A LITTLE SNOW ON THE WAY..

A BLAST OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO THIS WEEKEND. A SOUTH BOUND COLD FRONT WILL USHERIN THE COLD
AIR TONIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY FLOOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNT ON THE VALLEY FLOORS AND THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE CASCADES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S IN INLAND
VALLEYS...AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE CASCADES. DAYTIME HIGHS
LATE IN THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
INLAND VALLEYS.

OFF TOPIC - I have always been interested in ancient civilizations and
marvel at how they built such
magnificent structures and intricate kingdoms
and then puff . . . they are gone. Whole civilizations disappeared.
I am going
to see Mel Gibson's film Apocalypto today and see how he depicts the
Mayans and how they vanished.
BTW, at the Portland Art Museum is a
neat display of ancient relics and art from Egypt, The Quest for Immortally.



MY Quote of the Day - "Stepping forward is good, unless stepping
backward has an advantage." - Pat Timm




-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:12 AM,


Get out the Hat and Gloves