Hot Weather Coming Our Way!

Monday, May 28, 2007 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1045 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2007

...RECORD BREAKING WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

AN EARLY SEASON THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
UP THE OREGON COAST TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK...BRINGING OFFSHORE FLOW TO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL PUSH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES UP
TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN JEOPARDY OF MEETING
OR EXCEEDING PREVIOUSLY SET RECORDS.

LISTED ARE RECORD DATA FOR STATIONS AROUND THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST THIS
WEEK:

LOCATION               MAY 29TH            MAY 30TH
                   RECORD MAX...YEAR   RECORD MAX...YEAR


ASTORIA................... 76...1973 ......... 78...1986
TILLAMOOK................. 79...1973 ......... 73...1993
NEWPORT................... 84...1922 ......... 88...1970
VANCOUVER................. 93...1931 ......... 95...1933
PORTLAND AIRPORT.......... 90...1973 ......... 91...1986
PORTLAND DOWNTOWN......... 91...1931 ......... 93...1931
TROUTDALE................. 91...1972 ......... 90...1995
HILLSBORO................. 92...1931 ......... 93...1986
MCMINNVILLE............... 99...1983 ......... 97...1922
SALEM..................... 90...1995 ......... 92...1931
EUGENE.................... 89...1931 ......... 92...1931
HOOD RIVER................ 96...1931 ........ 102...1986
GOVERNMENT CAMP........... 84...1986 ......... 93...1986


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 3:58 PM,


A Little Bit of This and a Little Bit of That

Wednesday, May 23, 2007


NOWCAST - Okay, we had a few sprinkles that WERE NOT in the forecast today. But, we had some nice sunshine mid day as well with highs in the 70's so I guess that makes up for it? The clouds that moved through late in the afternoon and evening had just enough lift moving into the warm air over us that a few light showers developed., Amounts were not measurable in most places. Okay, back to some sunshine on Thursday with highs again into the 70's. Near 80 on Friday and the weekend still looks good but could see a repeat of this evening Saturday night. All in all, I think most BBQ's will take place just fine. If you are going on an annual camping trip in the mountains, best dig a rain trench around your tent and carry some extra plastic. You never know!! Be prepared I say.

OUTCAST - Here a few items of interest from the Washington State Climate Office -

The Climate Prediction Center's 1-month outlook for June indicates equal chance conditions for temperature and precipitation, except for the Blue Mountain region where there is a slightly increased probability for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. The 3-month outlook for June-July-August suggests a slightly increased chance for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of Washington. In the tropical Pacific, sea-surface temperatures remain consistent with ENSO neutral conditions and may transition to La Niña conditions in the next 2-3 months based on the current observed atmospheric trends and as predicted by a few models. However, half the models suggest ENSO neutral conditions will prevail for the remainder of the year. With the current spread of the forecasts and the typically low forecast skill of ENSO in the spring, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether or not La Niña may develop and therefore, not much emphasis should be placed on the current ENSO forecasts. Historically, the next few months are a critical time period for the possible emergence of La Niña and ENSO forecasts issued in the summer and fall have been much more accurate than those issued in the spring. For other seasonal outlooks, including local temperature outlooks, see http://climate.washington.edu/outlook.html.

GOOD NEWS! No water shortages seen! Late season snow showers around the Puget Sound region gave way to record heat a few days later. April 6, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport recorded a record high of 79 degrees, breaking the previous record of 73 set in 1977. April temperatures were near normal with a statewide average temperature of 47.0F, 0.2F cooler than the 1901-2000 average. Precipitation on the other hand, was below to much below normal for many parts of the state. Statewide precipitation was 63% of normal and 24th driest April out of 113-years (1 being the driest, 113 the wettest), with the Okanogan region being the driest (13% of normal). Due to the lack of precipitation, snowpack as of May 1 has not improved since March, but still remains healthy overall for most of the state. Statewide snowpack is 93% of normal, down only 5% from April 1. The lowest observations are found in Eastern Washington-Walla Walla River Basin 35% of average (36% drop from last month), Spokane River Basin 60%, east slopes of the Cascades 79%. Despite the below average readings, the above average snowpack and precipitation received earlier in the season has filled up reservoirs in most areas and is likely not going to produce any water shortages this summer. Further, streamflow forecasts for spring and summer indicate near to above average streamflow throughout the state.

From other sources - Get a larger dart board will you? Read Here.

EPA web site for climate change in case you wanted to know. Click Here.

Water Runoff Forecasts - Washington as stated above looks good, Oregon so so and the rest of the West, is way behind. Click Here.

Jesus Hit by Lightning - Read Here.

Fire Season Outlook by Paul Werth ,Weather Research and Consulting Services, LLC
Click Here


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 7:45 PM,


Fair to Middlin'

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

NOWCAST - Some clouds Wednesday, clearing Thursday and Friday with highs 75-80 on Thursday and Friday. The holiday weekend looks fair with some clouds at times and some sunshine too. Low chance of rain at this time.

OUTCAST - More on the jiggles inside NOAA. Read Here.

NOAA says more Atlantic hurricanes this year. Read Here.
Another hit
and a finale
Now you know as much as I do about this years hurricane predictions!

Oregon Scientific BHT668A: weather forecast device. Need another gadget? Here it is! Read Here.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 9:54 PM,


Weekend Gray Skies

Saturday, May 19, 2007

Clear skies predicted for Tuesday at Manzanita Beach on the North Oregon Coast.


NOWCAST - A few showers Sunday then a couple of dry and warm days Monday and Tuesday. Highs cool, only in low 60's Sunday and 70 on Monday and near 80 on Tuesday.

OUTCAST - Stormy weather conditions within the National Weather Service and NOAA. Purposed name change to NOAA Weather Service irks Director and Assistant. Both will retire in June. Read Here.

Hawaii is in a drought! Annual rainfall can vary from only six inches to 150 inches. Winter was very dry only 60 percent of normal and now they are going into the dry season. Read here.

Sunflower plants in Kansas may pack up and head north. Read Here

New Zealand Weatherman on Global Warming: 'It's All Going to be a Joke in 5 Years' Read Here.
(August H. (Augie) Auer Jr was a Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Wyoming for 22 years. He was Chief Meteorologist for the Meteorological Service of New Zealand from 1990 to 1998. Auer has been frequently quoted in the press regarding weather and climate issues. In 2006, he helped found the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition in order to argue claims about man-made global warming.)


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 2:24 PM,


Sunshine Ends, Showers Begin

Thursday, May 17, 2007


NOWCAST - Friday will be the last sunny and warm day until next week as a trough of low pressure settles in over the weekend for showers and cooler weather. Highs in the 70's Friday before clouds increase. Cool with highs in the 60's over the weekend. I hope we are not in a pattern of damp weekends and fair weekdays. Oh Well!

OUTCAST - Vancouver has received only half the normal rainfall fro May for the first half of the month. But a couple of good deluges could change that. It looks like Memorial Day weekend may be sunny and warm so stay tuned for that big forecast.

The smoke from the Florida fires can be seen on the visible satellite photos for the East Coast. It is streaming clear out to sea. For the latest on the Sunshine State and fires, click here.

Hollywood at it again. Gore lost out for US president but now will head up a new Non Profit Group on global warming. Read Here.

Seems to be a standard GAG ORDER for any of us that write about global warming and not going along with the "consensus" of man caused warming. Here is another fatality right here in our state. Mark Albright assistant state climatologist under Phil Mote was fired March 12 from the U of W post. Here is an article written by James Taylor.

Associate State Climatologist Fired for Exposing Warming Myths

Written By: James M. Taylor
Published In: Environment News
Publication Date: June 1, 2007
Publisher: The Heartland Institute

University of Washington climate scientist Mark Albright was dismissed on March 12 from his position as associate state climatologist, just weeks after exposing false claims of shrinking glaciers in the Cascade Mountains.

Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels (D) had asserted in a February 7 Seattle Times editorial, "the average snow pack in the Cascades has declined 50 percent since 1950 and will be cut in half again in 30 years if we don't start addressing the problems of climate change now."

Albright knew from his research that the Cascade Mountains snow pack had not declined anywhere near what Nickels asserted, and that the snow pack has actually been growing in recent years.


Embarrassing Data

Albright sent emails to his colleagues informing them of the factual data.

At most, according to reliable datasets, the Cascade Mountains snow pack declined by 35 percent between 1950 and 2000. Moreover, even that number is misleading. Nickels and other global warming alarmists deliberately choose 1950 as the "baseline" for Cascade Mountains snow pack because 1950 was a year of abnormally heavy snowfall resulting in an uncharacteristically extensive snow pack.

Albright noted in his emails the current snow pack is only marginally lower than the long-term average since 1943. Moreover, the Cascade Mountains snow pack has been growing since the late 1970s.

Albright's emails were particularly embarrassing to Philip Mote, the Washington state climatologist.

Mote had become well-known within the scientific community through his work documenting an asserted decline in Cascade Mountain glaciers. In late February, University of Washington atmospheric scientist Dennis Hartmann agreed to referee the brewing dispute.


Review Supported Albright

After reviewing the data, Hartmann concluded on February 22, "While some stations show a 50 percent downward trend in April 1 snow water equivalent between 1950 and present, we believe the overall observed trend for the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon is smaller.

"One set of observations using all of the Cascade mountain stations in Washington State ... from 1945 until the present shows a snow water equivalent decrease of about 30 percent," Hartmann noted. "If an earlier starting date is chosen, the trend is smaller, but the number of stations available before 1945 is relatively small and their average altitude is high.

"If a shorter record is chosen, starting in about 1975 for example, there is a small increase in snow water equivalent," Hartmann concluded (emphasis added).


Censored, Fired

After Hartmann announced his conclusions, Mote became increasingly upset that Albright was distributing emails keeping his colleagues informed of the latest developments regarding the Cascade snow pack.

In early March Albright was told he would have to submit any emails connected with his associate state climatologist position to Mote for pre-approval prior to distribution.

When Albright refused to submit to Mote's censorship, Mote stripped him of his associate state climatologist title.

Mote asserted he was not trying to censor Albright's views, but that Albright's emails simply needed to go through proper quality checks.


Politics Triumphant

Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, told the March 15 Seattle Times, "In all my years of doing science, I've never seen this sort of gag-order approach to doing science."

"Anytime politics intrudes on science, science is degraded and society as a whole is the loser," said Sterling Burnett, senior fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis. "That is why the whole global warming issue is a mess right now. Scientists have not reached a scientific conclusion yet, but the politicians want to jump the gun and be seen as saviors on the issue. This is a recipe for disaster."

Burnett continued, "The reputation of science as an independent and nonpartisan source of knowledge is put at risk whenever scientists are censored for sharing scientific knowledge. Scientists should never be pressured to come up with predetermined conclusions or punished for challenging the status quo.

"The essence of science is reasoned skepticism and the courage to either be wrong or show that others are wrong--all in the bold pursuit of truth. The bold pursuit of truth should never be discouraged," Burnett noted.

Senate defeats climate change bill. Read Here!

List of scientists doubting man caused global warming is growing. Read Here.

More folks changing their mind about global warming include:
Czech President Vaclav Klaus, known for his opposition to the view that humans are responsible for climate change, said Wednesday that the global warming "fad" was a threat to human freedoms.

Mayors against global warming and by the way, why are the streetlights on? Read Here!

Honeywell enters weather station market. Read Here about new station.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:45 PM,


A Good Start

Monday, May 14, 2007

NOWCAST - Great day Monday and Tuesday will be another until, we get a rush of marine air late in the day. Wednesday should have morning clouds but afternoon sunshine and same for Thursday and Friday. Computer models show showers and much cooler for the weekend but things could change by then. 81 degrees Monday and 75-80 degrees Tuesday depending on the marine air arrival time. Enjoy!

OUTCAST - Yeah for Yahoo!?? Read here

Two sides to every story, global warming balance. Read Here.

Will global warming chill the global economy? Read Here

Oscar Gore told to "cool it" by some scientists. Read Here
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SOURCE: National Weather Service Portland, Oregon

PORTLAND's ROSE FESTIVAL
Grand Floral Parade
Weather Statistics & Records, 1955-2006

The annual Rose Festival Parade is held in downtown Portland during early June, a time of transition from spring into summer. The weather can be cool and rainy, or hot and dry.

31 of the past parades have had measurable rain. The wettest parade day was June 9th, 1950 when 0.57 inch of rainfall fell. The next wettest was June 12th, 1982 with 0.50 inch of rain.

The warmest parade day was June 15th, 1963 when the temperature rose to 93 degrees while the coldest day was June 9th, 1933 with a cool 57 degree high temperature. On average, parade day temperatures top in the lower 70s (70.9 degrees).

Here are some quick statistics (based on 1955-2006 data):

Here is the early history of weather on Parade Day1:

Date/Year
High Temp
Low Temp
Rainfall
.
Date/Year
High Temp
Low Temp
Rainfall
June 4, 1908
64
49
0.00"
.
June 9, 1933
57
46
0.31
June 8, 1909
82
51
0.00"
.
June 14, 1934
75
53
0.00"
June 9, 1910
74
48
0.00"
.
June 7, 1935
72
58
0.00"
June 8, 1911
63
47
0.00"
.
June 12, 1936
78
58
0.00"
June 13, 1912
66
51
0.12"
.
June 11, 1937
70
55
0.40"
June 12, 1913
73
56
0.09"
.
June 10, 1938
82
48
0.00"
June 11, 1914
77
55
0.00"
.
June 9, 1939
71
55
Trace
June 10, 1915
62
48
0.25"
.
June 7, 1940
68
54
0.03"
June 8, 1916
66
50
0.00"
.
June 13, 1941
69
55
0.00"
June 12, 1919
72
49
0.13"
.
June 7, 1946
70
51
0.17"
June 24, 1920
59
45
0.11"
.
June 13, 1947
69
54
Trace
June 13, 1923
58
49
0.03"
.
June 12, 1948
66
56
0.19"
June 12, 1924
72
56
0.00"
.
June 10, 1949
71
58
0.00"
June 18, 1925
74
53
0.00"
.
June 9, 1950
77
53
0.57"
June 16, 1927
70
54
0.08"
.
June 8, 1951
72
49
0.00"
June 13, 1930
66
50
0.00"
.
June 12, 1952
69
46
0.04"
June 12, 1931
80
53
Trace
.
June 12, 1953
61
52
0.38"
June 17, 1932
75
46
0.00"
.
June 12, 1954
65
54
0.11"

1Some years are not listed. This is due to no parade that year, such as during World War II, or incomplete weather data.

Here is more weather history of the Rose Festival Parade Day:

Temperatures



Date/Year
Parade Sky Cover & Weather
Parade
Time
Afternoon
High
Morning
Low
Avg. Relative
Humidity
Average
10-Noon Wind
Day's
Precipitation
6/11/1955
Mostly Cloudy
58
76
66
66%
NW 8 mph
0.00"
6/9/1956
Cloudy
66
77
56
66%
E 6 mph
0.12"
6/15/1957
Cloudy
58
67
50
75
NW 3 mph
Trace
6/14/1958
Cloudy
63
75
58
70
NW 10
0.00"
6/13/1959
Partly Cloudy
61
64
53
67
W 6 mph
0.00"
6/11/1960
Cloudy
61
75
52
63
NW 9 mph
0.00"
6/10/1961
Sunny
58
71
47
60
W 6 mph
0.06"
6/16/1962
Mostly Cloudy
60
74
53
56
NW 7 mph
0.00"
6/15/1963
Mostly Sunny
75
93
66
48
NW 4 mph
0.00"
6/13/1964
Cloudy/Light Rain
62
72
55
65%
NW 6 mph
0.02"
6/12/1965
Partly Cloudy
57
68
45
55
W 6 mph
0.00"
6/11/1966
Cloudy/Light Rain
59
66
51
77
S 8 mph
0.04"
6/10/1967
Cloudy/Light Rain
56
66
42
80
SE 13 mph
Trace
6/8/1968
Cloudy
57
61
54
74
NW 9 mph
0.00"
6/14/1969
Sunny
65
82
61
63
W 10 mph
Trace
6/13/1970
Cloudy/Sprinkles
64
70
58
58
Calm winds
Trace
6/12/1971
Cloudy
60
64
49
61%
NW 3 mph
0.00"
6/10/1972
Sunny
60
70
47
58
N 3 mph
0.00"
6/9/1973
Mostly Cloudy
61
69
50
45
N 5 mph
0.00"
6/15/1974
Cloudy
66
71
59
56
NW 6 mph
0.00"
6/14/1975
Partly Cloudy
70
84
58
55
N 5 mph
0.00"
6/12/1976
Cloudy
59
63
43
57
NW 8 mph
0.00"
6/11/1977
Cloudy
58
65
52
70
NE 5 mph
0.00"
6/10/1978
Cloudy/Rain
58
63
53
82
SW 12 mph
0.24"
6/9/1979
Sunny
74
85
53
50
NW 8 mph
0.00"
6/12/1980
Cloudy/Light Rain
60
62
56
75
SW 5 mph
0.06"
6/13/1981
Mostly Cloudy
55
66
48
72%
NW 10 mph
0.00"
6/12/1982
Cloudy/Rain
55
60
55
90
S 4 mph
0.50"
6/11/1983
Cloudy/evening rain
60
66
53
65
S 6 mph
0.19"
6/9/1984
Cloudy/Light Rain
56
66
52
71%
NW 5 mph
0.09"
6/8/1985
Partly Cloudy
62
71
45
64
NW 8 mph
0.00"
6/7/1986
Cloudy
59
69
53
75%
NW 6 mph
Trace
6/6/1987
Sunny
61
75
51
64
NW 7 mph
0.00"
6/11/1988
Sunny
59
73
46
55
W 7 mph
0.00"
6/10/1989
Sunny
61
78
50
65%
NW 4 mph
0.00"
6/9/1990
Cloudy/Rain
59
65
58
80
NW 8 mph
0.43"
6/8/1991
Partly Cloudy
65
73
54
65%
NW 6 mph
0.00"
6/6/1992
Partly Cloudy
69
82
52
55%
NW 7 mph
0.00"
6/12/1993
Partly Cloudy
59
71
51
65%
NW 4 mph
Trace
6/11/1994
Partly Cloudy
63
81
58
61
W 7 mph
0.00"
6/10/1995
Cloudy/Light Rain
61
64
50
72%
S 8 mph
0.10"
6/8/1996
Partly Cloudy
61
74
57
55%
W 7 mph
Trace
6/7/1997
Mostly Cloudy
62
67
54
52
NW 10 mph
0.00"
6/6/1998
Mostly Sunny
64
81
53
55%
NW 4 mph
0.00"
6/12/1999
Mostly Sunny
69
87
61
NA
W 11 mph
0.00"
6/10/2000
Cloudy, occasional light rain
54
55
50
70-78%
S 11 mph
0.16"
6/9/2001
Mostly Cloudy
60
66
54
60-65%
W 9 mph.
0.09"
6/8/2002
Mostly cloudy with Few Showers, then partly sunny.
53
62
45
60-70%
W 6 mph
0.05"
6/7/2003
Sunny
73
91
60
40-45%
Light
0.00"
6/12/2004
Mostly Cloudy, then Partly sunny.
59
68
51
55%
NE 3 mph
Trace
6/11/2005
Cloudy. Light Rain
58
62
52
70-80%
W 10 mph
0.10
6/10/2006
Morning clouds, then Partly Sunny
60
72
55
60-65%
NW 6 mph
Trace
6/9/2007


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 9:43 PM,


A Taste of Summer I'd Say

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

NOWCAST - Monday and Tuesday sure gave us a taste of summer I'd say with highs Monday knocking on 80 degrees and into the low 70's Tuesday. A brisk north wind arose in the afternoon Tuesday ushering in some cooler air. Wednesday and the rest of the week will have those usual morning clouds with afternoon sunshine with highs between 65 and 70 degrees depending on how soon the clouds depart. Anyway you look at it, a nice span of dry days ahead. Enjoy!

OUTCAST - Boy there sure is a spattering of weather across the nation. From quiet skies over the West Coast to severe thunderstorms, flooding and wildfires eastward. Imagine a tornado leveling almost an entire town. There is so much severe weather pounding the US soils lately that I don't think I will talk about it here.

Weather radios a mandate? Read here.

Exposed: Climate of Fear- If you missed Glenn Beck's show last week about the other side of Gore's film, you should see it. And of course there are those that are exposing his side of things as the left side will. Click here to go to his show on CNN.

To see the other side's point of view on his show go here.

Thanks to global warming, the cherry crop is looking sweet. Read Here.

OFF TOPIC - Hey, as a help to the environment and global warming I am slowly using more cold water for my morning showers. Trying some cold water therapy and am just beginning to see some of the benefits. Interesting item. I have a big pet peeve to blast off. I hate those lousy sticking Dodge Ram diesel pickups. Not only do they stink, they are as loud as a big Frieghtliner truck and you can hear them coming three blocks away. They are noise polluters. And those that have dual wheels, they take up the entire road. Okay, now I have said it, sorry if I offended anyone here, but hey, it's my blog and I dislike them greatly!!!

I have been busy building a deck, planting some flower tubs to place on the deck and a few other flowers out in the yard to add a splash of summer color. Next, I am placing a 5 by 10 foot raised box for a garden bed in the yard for a few home grown veggies.

Also have been busy gathering my storyline for my novel I am writing about the Columbus Day windstorm, a historical fiction book if you can imagine. I have a cast of six characters and I will be excited to get more chapters behind me. I also have another work in progress and ideas for a couple more books. Just not enough hours in the day but I am trying to get better organized and set a schedule. Boy, retirement isn't easy folks.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:51 PM,


A Bit of Weather to Write Home About

Friday, May 04, 2007

NOWCAST -

Here are some rainfall reports from your friends and neighbors around the region for April. Vancouver Pearson field measured 2.42 inches and I recorded 2.43 inches here in north Salmon Creek; Dan Hein, north Camas, 3.16 inches; Claudia Chiasson, Carson, 3.40 inches; Judy Darke, Felida, 2.63 inches; Pete Conrad, Tukes Mountain near Battle Ground, 2.72 inches; Murphy Dennis, Rawson Road next to Clark Rifles, 3.43 inches; Tyler Mode, Minnehaha, 2.07 inches; Bud Maddux, Home Valley, 2.36 inches; Amboy Middle School, 3.69 inches; Tom Brown, Westglade, 2.40 inches; Jim Knoll, Orchards, 2.63 inches; Will Hayden, Five Corners, 3.80 inches; Robin Ruzek, Lakeshore, 1.85 inches; Phil Delany, above Dole Valley, 5.10 inches; Irv St. Germain, SW Prune Hill, 3.34 inches; Phil Harris, Washougal, 4.46 inches; Keith Andersen, Meadow Glade, 3.40 inches; Larry Lebsack, NE Hazel Dell, 2.24 inches; Ken McGowen, 1 mile NE of the fairgrounds, 3.21 inches; Chuck Houghten, Hockinson Heights, 3.85 inches; and Ellen Smart, Ridgefield, 2.30 inches.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 3:15 PM,