Another Week Another Forecast
Monday, October 29, 2007NOWCAST - Another great weekend for October and a mostly dry week ahead. A few weak weather systems moving through, one tonight, another Wednesday night and over the weekend which promises a better chance of showers. Meanwhile partly to mostly sunny days, cool nights.
OUTCAST - The 15th Annual "What Will the Winter Weather Be Like" discussion is scheduled for Friday November 9th from 10-12 at OMSI. Sponsored by the Oregon Chapter of the AMS, four speakers will present their idea of what to expect this coming winter. The public is invited.
It appears that Vancouver will chalk up another drier than normal month as October goes out the door Wednesday night. There has not been an average or above month this year with rain in the plus category.
Cooler weather in southern California helps firefighters mop up after last weeks infernos. There is a risk of the Santa Ana's returning later this week so I hope the ambers are dead out and the crazies are locked up.
November will most likely roll in on a dry note, maybe a few sprinkles but nothing like last year when we saw over 13 inches of rain in downtown Vancouver for the month. It was the beginning of a very active two-month period of rain, wind, floods, and eventually heavy wet snow in Puget Sound. Stay tuned.
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 5:00 PM,
A Brief Shot of Rain, Now Back to The Same
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The Full Hunter's Moon will rise tomorrow evening and we should have clear skies to see it (hopefully).
NOWCAST - Okay, we received a tad more rain than I thought as a weak cold front held together and brought some light showers this afternoon to the Clark County area. Amounts were generally light. The most notable event was the chilly temperatures after the frontal passage in the early evening. Quite a difference from Tuesday when afternoon highs were in the mid 70's! High pressure rebuilds and dry weather may be upon us for the rest of the month. How about that? At least that is what some computer models say this evening but it seems lately that there is always "one more" front moving through. Stay tuned!
OUTCAST -
If you haven't seen the pictures from space of the California wildfires, here is a quick snapshot but more are available that are worth viewing. Just Google it. This photo was taken today by a NOAA satellite. Of course some say this is caused by global warming. Poppycock! Many factors are contributing to this. Weather conditions with Santa Ana winds always occur in the fall, arson is a concern, and more and more homes are built out in the sticks where fire danger is always high. Nature takes it course. You live in those places you run the risk. My heart goes out to those that lost their home, it is devastating but don't blame global warming on this. Wikipedia lost no time posting this big event read here. Interesting as we head towards Halloween that one fire is named "Witch Fire" as it is near Witch Creek.
Fish Story? I had a few inquiries about the fish in Lake Sammamish and what they are predicting this year for our winter weather. I threw a line out and I will report back when I get a nibble. Please stay tuned (really).
The verdict is out I guess for the winter as far as the woolly bears are concerned. My final observation is a toss up. So as
NOAA would say, there is an equal chance of normal, above, or below average precipitation. An equal chance of normal, above, or below normal temperatures as well. As far as the smashed woollies on the trail, they really don't care either.
Kelvin Helmholtz Wave Clouds.
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:54 PM,
Indian Summer Weather
Monday, October 22, 2007
This photo of Mt. St. Helen's was taken from the volcano web cam around noon on Monday
NOWCAST - Monday was a very fine day at least in Clark County. The Washington coast and some northern areas were still contending with rainfall from a slow moving warm front that hung up over northwestern Washington Sunday and Monday. The outlook calls for mostly dry weather locally but some clouds Wednesday as another front brushes us. I think most rain will remain off the coast and northward. Warm temperatures Tuesday in the 70's and back to the 50-60's the rest of the week. Enjoy!
OUTCAST - I really didn't think we were going to get a string of nice fall days this month after the stormy weather the first three weeks of the month. High pressure is building in for a taste of Indian Summer weather anyways. It may be marred by some clouds mid-week but hey, soak up all you can. The mountains are covered with a nice deep mantle of white after up[wards of two feet fell over the weekend. With freezing levels rising, a melt off is underway.
I mention in tomorrow's column about snow and ice building up in the far north. If you click on this link, you can see the progress over the last 30 days or so. You may want to bookmark this link. If the snow and ice continue to build, then it will be a good source of cold air that could plummet our way later in the season. Click Here
No peace here. Ok, I have had enough. Many readers have sent me e-mails about Al Gore and his Nobel Peace Prize award. Does it get any worse? I hope not. It seems to me that the status of this once outstanding honor has gone with the wind. Seems like politics get ingrained just about anywhere nowadays.
And speaking of going nowhere. All of these computer climate models that spell gloom and doom down the road, how can you prove anything one way or another. How does one know the climate wouldn't have gone that way or not? It is like shifting sands.
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 7:45 PM,
Preliminary Wind Reports
Thursday, October 18, 2007
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NOUS46 KPQR 182104 AAC
PNSPQR
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
205 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007
...FIRST STRONG WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON HITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...
A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
COASTS AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS TUESDAY MORNING OCTOBER
16TH...AND THE COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND THE WILLAPA HILLS
WERE ADDED TO THE WATCH LATER THAT AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
THE COAST RANGE OF CENTRAL OREGON WAS ISSUED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
OCTOBER 17TH. ALL WATCHES WERE UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS THE
AFTERNOON OF OCTOBER 17TH AND ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS
MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.
THE FOLLOWING WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR (IN MPH):
LINCOLN CITY.........................70
NEWPORT JETTY........................71
NEWPORT AIRPORT......................64 (PEAK WIND GUST)
LAUREL MOUNTAIN......................70
CAPE MEARES..........................80 (APPEARS WIND EQUIP WENT OUT)
GARIBALDI............................79 (PEAK WIND GUST)
CANNIBAL RAWS........................50
TILLAMOOK BAY........................56
SOUTH BEACH..........................46 ...CORRECTED...
...UPDATED AND NEW REPORTS AS FOLLOWS...
ABERNATHY RAWS.......................59
DUNES RAWS...........................53
MOUNT HEBO...........................83
YAQUINA BAY BRIDGE...................73
ASTORIA AIRPORT......................60
TILLAMOOK AIRPORT....................59
ROCKHOUSE RAWS.......................65
CLATSOP SPIT.........................62
FLORENCE.............................73 (PEAK WIND GUST)
SEA LION CAVES.......................81 ...UPDATED...
CAPE DISSAPOINTMENT..................69 ...UPDATED...
...ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS FROM SPOTTER REPORTS...
BLODGETT..........................39-54
FLORENCE..........................47-54
CORVALLIS............................45
...MEASURED WIND GUSTS FROM SPOTTER REPORTS...
OCEAN PARK...........................51
BAY CENTER...........................53
ASTORIA..............................55
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 3:43 PM,
Windy Forecast!
940 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2007
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE PORTLAND VANCOUVER METRO AREA..
AND THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON..
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS TO THE INLAND VALLEYS FROM THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN EXPOSED AREAS...WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.
A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE.
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 12:50 AM,
The Front Door is Open
Monday, October 15, 2007
NOWCAST - With 150 knot winds, the jet stream is pushing Pacific weather systems right at us. So the week forecast is for periods of rain and breezy. The main thrust of the storms may meander north or south of us or dump right on us so be prepared for just about anything. Cooler temperatures as well.
OUTCAST - Why do leaves change color? Read Here.
The following is an open letter to the Portland Oregonian newspaper by meteorologist Chuck Wiese of Portland (yet to be published by the paper).
To The Editorial Staff of The Oregonian:
Congratulations on the release of Saturday's editorial page regarding CO2/ man made global warming. It was an example of yet another piece of political sensationalism crafted around the subject without any scientific substance or accuracy.
You guys urge the public to go out and watch Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth" which distorts the explanations of scientific processes ( Because Al Gore is scientifically incompetent and incapable of doing this ) and continues to portray the temperature "hockey stick" of the earth as valid, ( Which was soundly refuted by Steven McIntyre ) makes the false claim that the correlation between CO2 and temperature is that temperature follows CO2 concentration, ( which is false, the temperature LEADS the increases in CO2, for CO2 is either released or sequestered by the oceans based upon temperature rise or fall, which invalidates the claim Gore makes that there is a statistical relationship that CO2 drives temperature ) and makes the preposterous claims that sea level rise from CO2 will put places like New York, Miami, Los Angeles and Portland under water as he claims a 21 ft. sea level rise is imminent. Not even the faulty computer climate models predict this.
Then we have Gore, who wrote a 1/3 page op-ed and said nothing of any scientific substance that can validate his claims. Gore can't even get his facts straight after supposedly studying the issue for the years he claims to have done this. He claims the Arctic ice melt is proof of the hypothesis. Really? Is that why it happened at the beginning and the middle of the last century ( starting in 1905, which was well documented by the Russians as they successfully traversed the Northwest Passage ) when CO2 concentrations were half of their current values? He then claimed that the Antarctic ice was melting as well. This is incorrect. He might have wanted to contact the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana/Champaign before claiming that. Their measurements actually show that the Antarctic ice total area has now grown to near new record highs, with the SAME CO2 concentrations we have measured in the Northern Hemisphere. The South American Country of Argentina just finished it's coldest AND snowiest winter in 100 years! How can this be? Climate models predicted retreat and melting of the ice in both hemispheres due to CO2. Looks like the climate models were wrong. Those of us who have studied radiation physics and atmospheric science could tell you why, but our message has been drowned out by the special interests that drive this fraudulent hypothesis, inluding some that are connected to the academic community. European atmospheric research has shown that global cooling trends start in the southern hemisphere. Gore also claims that every 24 hours, we put 70 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere but failed to mention the recent cooling oceans and flourished plant life are able to sequestor more carbon out of the atmosphere than we put in. Atmospheric CO2 levels actually fell naturally by 1.3 % in the last year globally, a statistic Gore ignored. But it doesn't matter anyway, because the underpinnings of the physics of the claim that CO2 drives earth temperatures are wrong!
Finally, here's something interesting for you all. The meteorological community has been watching with much interest the onset of rapid and marked cooling of the tropical Pacific. A strong La Nina is developing. Temperatures have fallen to minimums that put this La Nina into the top five of the last century, and are continuing fall. If the trend continues, a new record low temperature of the tropical ocean will occur. How can this be if Gore and his warming sycophants are correct? I have heard the claim for several years from warmers when the oceans were warming that this was being caused by CO2 radiation that was storing "immense quantities" of heat in the tropical ocean system where the models predicted the warming would occur first. By the way, if the tropical ocean had been warmed by CO2, it would not be permissible for it to cool as much as it has just done. New minimum anomalies were not predicted by any climate model. It appears as though that theory, like all other CO2 warming theories are caving through the floor.
By the way, La Nina usually creates weather conditions on the northwestern North American continent that are contrary to the fairy tale of CO2 induced climate change. The CO2 fairy tale scenario involves drought, with warmer than average temperatures. La Nina is more associated with colder than average temperatures and above normal precipitation. This elevates the probability of low elevation weather extremes this fall and winter that include, wind, rain ( flooding) and snow. The higher elevations almost always end up with above average snowpack. Looks like Climate Impacts Group may have to fudge the snowpack data again next year so that they can tell us it is declining due to CO2. Does anyone at the the O care to wager me on this for this fall and winter? If you believe in CO2 induced climate change, you cannot expect anything other than below normal precipitation ( declining mountain snowpack ) and warmer than average temperatures. The probability of extremes in wind or snow at low elevation are diminished as well. Save this e-mail and I'll ask you to pull it out so that we can discuss it next spring as well. If you care to wager, and I win, I would expect you to agree to allow me an op-ed piece like Algore got to do Saturday to scientifically attack and debunk the CO2 global warming myth..... : )
Chuck F. Wiese
Meteorologist
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 7:49 PM,
Where were you in '62?
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Friday is the 45th anniversary of the Big Blow, the Columbus Day windstorm of October 12, 1962. I give my recount of the big storm in Fridays Weather Eye column. Click here for the link and go to the Arts & Living Section. To read Wolf Read's paper on the storm follow this linkNOWCAST - Looks like a couple of dry days now through Sunday with warming temperatures and a bit more sunshine. Yeah! Then next week the door opens again to the Pacific with a series of weather systems forecast to march right on in upon us! If you need a dry day or two to get things done outside, do it this weekend. I know on person that is going to put up their outdoor holiday lighting while it is mild and dry. Hmmm.....
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From James Spann and the team of meteorologists at ABC 33/40. Watch here.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock, what's up doc? Read Here.Fire Weather over for the year- Read here.
Global Warming fix in a can? Read here.
This about sums it up. . . .good night. Read here.
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 6:45 PM,
Large Storm Will Travel
Monday, October 08, 2007
Very Large storm is just off the coast and will scoot by us about 350-400 miles off the coast on Tuesday sparing us from damaging winds.
Water Vapor satellite photo taken at 5 pm Monday
Visible satellite Photo taken at 5pm Monday
Infrared satellite photo taken at 5pm Monday
Forecasters say Pacific Northwest will get very cold this winter . . .be ready to bundle up! Read Here
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 7:14 PM,
Stormy Week Ahead!
Saturday, October 06, 2007
This beautiful winter scene was taken Friday by weather observer Tyler Mode of Vancouver. He shot this from about 2,500 elevation while climbing Mt. Mitchell and looking towards Mt. St. Helen's.
NOWCAST - It looks like our stormy fall weather will continue this coming week with the possibility of windy conditions continuing Tuesday. Stay tuned to your favorite weather source for the latest updates.
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 1:36 PM,
Fall Weather Pattern Continues
Thursday, October 04, 2007
While the higher mountains got several inches of snow, the lower elevations had a light dusting mixing winter into the fall scene.NOWCAST - A break Friday and perhaps part of Saturday for most of us then more rain showers come back to give us another round of wetness. Not as heavy as last week though. Snow levels will go up next week as we get more of a southwest flow. Computer models hint at a chance of a storm coming in perhaps Tuesday with very strong winds so stay tuned for that episode if it develops.
OUTCAST -
Here are some rainfall reports from your friends and neighbors around the region for September. I recorded 1.88 inches here in north Salmon Creek;
Remember all the reports of hail last Friday and even a few this week accompanied by thunder? Yes this photo is ice pellets (hail) not snow. Sure looks like winter is giving us a tease!
After last Friday's cold front, numerous heavy showers some with hail, drenched the Clark County area with over an inch of rain in some locations. Weather observer Chuck Houghton of Hockinson Heights experienced quite an ice pellet storm. The following is his Friday afternoon report: "We just had a great hail storm here, hail larger than the normal pea size stuff that we often get and was up 1/2" in size for the larger hailstones but mostly between 1/4 and 1/2 inch. It came down very hard with gusty winds along with a lightning bolt or two for probably a good ten minutes which piled up deep in spots and the ground was totally covered." He notified me Saturday morning that there were still piles of hail scattered about the yard.
Funnel Cloud sighted in Clark County Thursday afternoon - A large cell of showers were sighted on radar around 5:30 in eastern Clark County accompanied by thunder, lightning, and hail, and the funnel cloud shown here.
SNOW REPORT: MT HOOD MEADOWS PICKED UP 6 INCHES AT THE TOP OF THE
MT HOOD EXPRESS LIFT AND 4 INCHES NEW AT THE BASE. TIMERLINE MT
SHOP HAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON TOP OF THE 4 TO 5 INCHES
ALREADY ON THE GROUND. GOVERNMENT CAMP HIGHWAY DEPT REPORTED
1 INCH OF NEW SNOW. THE HIGHWAY DEPT ALSO REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW ON HWY 20 TOMBSTONE SUMMIT.
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 7:34 PM,
Rainy Season Well Underway!
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
NOWCAST - The forecast this evening is a simple one: Rain and showers, blustery at times with scattered thunderstorms and hail. Cooling trend as well with snow in higher mountains. We may see a brief respite over the weekend which would be very nice.
OUTCAST - If you would like to read a good basic primer (PDF file, it is safe) on global warming click here
Still Waiting for Greenhouse? Read John Daly's web site. Mr Daly died in 2004 but his writings remain. Interesting view from a person who has seen it all. Click here.
Mos
t of the woolly bear caterpillars that I have observed plus reports from others indicate a so-so average winter. Most middle orange bands are 4-5 bands wide and some are wider. That may be contrary what the latest signs of La Nina point too (cold, wet). In fact some are beginning to think that this winter could be similar to 1950, 1968, and 1978. If you want to see what 1950 was in the Pacific Northwest, just do a Google search and find out! Here is what KOMO TV Steve Pool has to say. I don't know if that will occur just yet, still tabulating other data for another few weeks. But I do think it is going to be colder than normal. Best to get a plan in place for a severe winter anyways.La Nina threatens to wreck havoc on world's weather
Read what the Brits are saying about this winter here. They make this statement about the NW, "A chronic drought afflicting southern California and many southeastern states of America could be exacerbated, with Los Angeles heading for its driest year on record. In contrast, western Canada and the northwestern US could turn colder and snowier."
Tornado? I mentioned in my column recently about the tornado that touched down near Lebanon, Oregon. Read more here.Most tornadoes or funnel clouds occur in western valleys are cold core funnel clouds resulting from a very cold trough of low pressure that usually follows a vigorous cold front.
(photo by John Van Cleave)
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:14 PM,
