Hang On, It's Gonna Be A Wild Ride!

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Snow fell in the higher elevations in many locations around western Washington Wednesday night and hung around early Thursday morning.

NOWCAST- Okay, so how does snow, sleet, freezing rain, wind, floods sound? Well if any of the computer models verify, some parts of the Northwest including Clark County are going to get hammered this weekend and early next week. If we get enough cold air drifting down from the north and east prior to Saturday morning, we could get several hours and several inches of snow on Saturday. If not, plain rain and eventually possible damaging winds sometime Sunday. It is a messy forecast at present so stay tuned for later forecasts tomorrow. So, cold, drier, snowier, wetter, warmer, and windier. Hang on!

OUTCAST - Looking at computer models I wouldn't be surprised if we received more rainfall in the first five days of December than we did in all of November. Lots of moisture streaming our way from three old typhoons. Please watch the latest forecast from your favorite sources for updates. Heavy mountain snows early on in the weekend will turn to heavy rain below 6,000 feet and we probably will be hearing about some flooding. Kind of funny that last year on December 1 & 2 crazy weather hit the Northwest with high winds, heavy wet snow while some areas were just wet and balmy. It all depends where the track of the big storm goes. Further north we remain in the warm sector, closer to Astoria, we remain colder. The low looks quite impressive with a 945-960 mb center.

Oregon Climate Service is looking for volunteers - Read Here

Global Warming is reversible? Yes, string those LED lights please. Read Here.

Global Warming is the cause of EVERYTHING!! Read this from Rush.
And this


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:15 PM,


Snow teaser . . .More to Come?

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

NOWCAST- Rain turned to wet snow this evening in most parts of Clark County with sticking snow generally above 500 feet although I had enough to turn my grass white and top of cars etc here at Salmon Creek. Pretty wet though. Seattle NWS mentioned earlier today about the deformation zone dropping down from the Islands off BC. Look at the very short trajectory. The band of coldest air and resulting wet snow was going to end up someplace! You could see this on Sat Pix, don't know why TV forecasters didn't pick up on this one. I thought the band would come right over us while looking at things at 3pm. Good call by SEA NWS. They said somewhere in western Washington could get wet snow. But as always, a difficult call when marginal conditions exist. I think it is only a tease to a much better chance of snow over the weekend if the cold air and moisture line up just right. If so, we could be talking several inches before we transition to warm and wet conditions the first part of next week. Stay tuned it will be exciting! Meanwhile showers Thursday and possible snow showers again tomorrow evening perhaps. Drier and chilly on Friday and Saturday, wow, we'll see!

I guess if you call 1/8-1/4 inch of wet slushy snow on the ground is measurable snowfall, then November 28 will go down as our (mine) first snow. I have had reports of 1/2 inch to 2 inches of snow from Ridgefield to Yacolt tonight so far. Prune Hill got sticking snow and most higher elevations. One last batch of heavier precipitation was moving through at 8:30 with the coldest temps here in Clark County as some PDX locations warmed up with rain.

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-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:30 PM,


November On The Way Out!

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

NOWCAST - Despite recent rains and the forecast of rain Wednesday and showers Thursday, November may end up just like the other ten months of the year have: below normal rainfall. We'll see how much punch the next storm carries. So, rain Wednesday, heavy mountain snows and showers and clearing periods Thursday lingering into Friday with snow levels down to 500 feet. Cold high pressure dominates Friday and Saturday before more moisture rides in. We could see a wintry mix on Sunday so stay tuned!

OUTCAST - I'm thinking that December may be a much wetter month than we have experienced this year so far, in fact I may venture out and predict our precipitation will be at least average or slightly above. And we may get a bout or two of snow. We may get freezing rain, sleet, or brief snow on December 2 to kick things off. After that warmer rains are predicted by medium range models and next week will feel quite balmy from this week. Wet, mild, and wild.

I did see the first low elevation snowflakes Monday afternoon as the cold front moved into Clark County. Big wet flakes were falling shortly after dark for about five minutes. Snow did fall up in the gorge and in the lower foothills of the Cascades. We had six days of sub freezing temperatures with overnight lows well into the 20's. My lowest was 21 degrees the day after Thanksgiving.

From Grace W of Vancouver: "We live adjacent to Joe's Place farms in Cascade Park so moles are always around, but I started noticing a lot more activity within the last 2 or 3 weeks...and the tunnels seem deeper than in the past. Is this an indication of a more severe winter perhaps? Also, I predicted an early, cold winter in October when I saw a very large & furry caterpillar with an extremely wide black stripe." Time will time for sure. Makes sense to me.

I can only chuckle to myself when I think of the White House meeting of the Nobel Prize winners who met with President Bush. I would give almost anything to know what Al Gore and George Bush were thinking while they stood next to each other. Boy, one could certainly write a caption with those photos. Global warming anyone?

Last weekend's edition of the La Grande Observer mentioned that during the wind storm a couple of weeks ago on November 12, wind gusts to 122 mph were recorded in the Wallowa Mountains in eastern Oregon. There were many trees toppled over in the Wallowa Lake State Park and surrounding areas. Now that is some wind! Read Here





-- posted by Pat Timm @ 6:59 PM,


Latest Wind Reports

Monday, November 12, 2007 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

 248 PM PST MON NOV 12 2007

 

 ...SUMMARY OF WINDS REPORTED AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...

 

 97 MPH PEAK GUST 5 MILES EAST OF I-5 ON MT BAKER HIGHWAY ( 900 AM )

 92 MPH PEAK GUST SEKIU ( 730 AM )

 84 MPH PEAK GUST LAKE LAWRENCE ( 930 AM )

 74 MPH PEAK GUST BELLINGHAM AIRPORT ( 809 AM )

 73 MPH PEAK GUST VICINITY ANACORTES ( 900 AM )

 71 MPH PEAK GUST HOQUIAM AIRPORT ( 736 AM )

 70 MPH PEAK GUST NAS WHIDBEY ISLAND ( 0907 AM )

 67 MPH PEAK GUST GRAYLAND ( 720 AM )

 63 MPH PEAK GUST FRIDAY HARBOR AIRPORT ( 918 AM )

 62 MPH PEAK GUST VICINITY FERNDALE ( 730 AM )

 58 MPH PEAK GUST PORT ANGELES AIRPORT ( 303 AM )

 57 MPH PEAK GUST FORKS ( 600 AM ) LAST OB BEFORE POWER WENT OUT

 

 45 MPH SUSTAINED OAK HARBOR (930 AM )

 36 MPH SUSTAINED SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT ( 1151 AM )

 35 MPH SUSTAINED OLYMPIA AIRPORT ( 1044 AM )

 33 MPH SUSTAINED GIG HARBOR ( 1057 AM )

 32 MPH SUSTAINED PAINE FIELD EVERETT ( 1231 PM )

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL SUMMARY

 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR

 340 PM PST MON NOV 12 2007

 

 ...A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO NORTHWEST OREGON

 AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ...

 

 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST...COAST

 RANGE...AND INLAND VALLEYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO BRITISH

 COLUMBIA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE

 CASCADES...AND HAS TAKEN ANY MORE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH

 IT.

 

 LISTED ARE SOME OF THE HIGHEST WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS

 SYSTEM.

                                     

 LOCATION                          WIND GUST (MPH) SUSTAINED (MPH)

    

 .......WASHINGTON.......

 ...COAST...

 TOKE POINT (NORTH END OF WILLAPA BAY)..77.............58

 BAY CENTER.............................70

 OYSTERVILLE............................69

 OCEAN PARK.............................58

 SOUTH BEND.............................52

 LONG BEACH.............................51

 

 ...WILLAPA HILLS...

 ABERNATHY MTN..........................69.............38

 

 ...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...

 CANYON CREEK RAWS......................53

 

 ...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTERIOR...

 NEAR KELSO.............................57

 LACENTER...............................48

 KELSO AIRPORT..........................46

 LONGVIEW TIDE GAGE.....................44

 INTERSTATE 5 BRIDGE IN VANCOUVER.......44

 CAMAS..................................42

 KALAMA.................................40

 

 

 ......OREGON......

 ...NORTH COAST...

 CAPE MEARES (TYPICALLY HIGH BIAS)......92.............59

 CLATSOP SPIT...........................86.............73

 GARIBALDI..............................83.............63

 CANNON BEACH...........................73

 ROCKAWAY BEACH.........................70

 TILLAMOOK BAY TIDE GAGE................64.............40

 ASTORIA AIRPORT........................63.............41

 WARRENTON..............................58

 ARCH CAPE..............................54

 TILLAMOOK AIRPORT......................54

 ASTORIA................................52

 

 ...CENTRAL COAST...

 YAQUINA BRIDGE.........................79.............61

 SEA LION CAVES.........................75.............49

 DEPOE BAY..............................74

 LINCOLN CITY...........................72.............38

 YAQUINA HEAD...........................72

 NEWPORT JETTY..........................73.............54

 NEAR NEWPORT...........................66

 YACHATS................................64

 FLORENCE JETTY.........................62.............50

 NEWPORT AIRPORT........................60.............44

 ROADS END..............................55

 HATFIELD SCIENCE CENTER................54

 SOUTH BEACH............................52

 

 

 ...COAST RANGE...

 ROCKHOUSE RAWS.........................73.............39

 MT. HEBO...............................80

 CEDAR RAWS.............................64

 SOUTH FORK RAWS........................48

 WILKINSON RAWS.........................47

 

 ...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...

 SALEM AIRPORT..........................48

 ALOHA..................................48

 MCMINNVILLE AIRPORT....................46

 SHERWOOD...............................46

 PORTLAND AIRPORT.......................46

 AURORA AIRPORT.........................46

 INTERSTATE 205 AT DIVISION.............44

 HILLSBORO AIRPORT......................43

 FINLEY WILDLIFE REFUGE (CORVALLIS).....42

 TROUTDALE AIRPORT......................41

 EAGLE CREEK............................41

 SCAPPOOSE..............................40

 EUGENE AIRPORT.........................38

 STAYTON................................38

 INTERSTATE 405 AT FREMONT BRIDGE.......36

 

 ...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...

 YELLOWSTONE MTN........................55

 BRUSH CREEK RAWS.......................54

 WANDERERS PEAK.........................54

 FIELDS (NEAR OAKRIDGE).................46

 HORSE CREEK RAWS.......................44

 SANDY..................................36

 

 ...BUOYS...

 BUOY 50 (OFF NEWPORT)..................67

 BUOY 89................................64

 BUOY 29 (COLUMBIA RIVER BAR)...........62

 

 IN ADDITION...THIS STORM BROUGHT POWER OUTAGES TO THOUSANDS OF

 CUSTOMERS IN NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. AT ONE

 TIME...ABOUT 45000 CUSTOMERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WERE WITHOUT POWER.

 MOST POWER OUTAGES WERE DUE TO DOWNED TREES TAKING OUT POWER LINES.

 DOWNED TREES ALSO CAUSED ROAD CLOSURES TO A HANDFUL OF HIGHWAYS

 THROUGHOUT THE AREA...MAINLY UP IN THE COAST RANGE. MULTIPLE DAMAGE

 REPORTS WERE ALSO RECEIVED...INCLUDING ONE OF A ROOF HAVING BEEN

 BLOWN OFF THE FIRE STATION IN GEARHART OREGON.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 4:52 PM,


Updated Wind Reports

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
340 PM PST MON NOV 12 2007

...A STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT HIGH WINDS TO THE COAST...COAST
RANGE...AND INLAND VALLEYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AND HAS TAKEN ANY MORE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
IT.

LISTED ARE SOME OF THE HIGHEST WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
                                   
LOCATION                          WIND GUST (MPH) SUSTAINED (MPH)
  
.......WASHINGTON.......
...COAST...
TOKE POINT (NORTH END OF WILLAPA BAY)..77.............58
BAY CENTER.............................70
OYSTERVILLE............................69
OCEAN PARK.............................58
SOUTH BEND.............................52
LONG BEACH.............................51

...WILLAPA HILLS...
ABERNATHY MTN..........................69.............38

...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...
CANYON CREEK RAWS......................53

...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTERIOR...
NEAR KELSO.............................57
LACENTER...............................48
KELSO AIRPORT..........................46
LONGVIEW TIDE GAGE.....................44
INTERSTATE 5 BRIDGE IN VANCOUVER.......44
CAMAS..................................42
KALAMA.................................40


......OREGON......
...NORTH COAST...
CAPE MEARES (TYPICALLY HIGH BIAS)......92.............59
CLATSOP SPIT...........................86.............73
GARIBALDI..............................83.............63
CANNON BEACH...........................73
ROCKAWAY BEACH.........................70
TILLAMOOK BAY TIDE GAGE................64.............40
ASTORIA AIRPORT........................63.............41
WARRENTON..............................58
ARCH CAPE..............................54
TILLAMOOK AIRPORT......................54
ASTORIA................................52

...CENTRAL COAST...
YAQUINA BRIDGE.........................79.............61
SEA LION CAVES.........................75.............49
DEPOE BAY..............................74
LINCOLN CITY...........................72.............38
YAQUINA HEAD...........................72
NEWPORT JETTY..........................73.............54
NEAR NEWPORT...........................66
YACHATS................................64
FLORENCE JETTY.........................62.............50
NEWPORT AIRPORT........................60.............44
ROADS END..............................55
HATFIELD SCIENCE CENTER................54
SOUTH BEACH............................52


...COAST RANGE...
ROCKHOUSE RAWS.........................73.............39
MT. HEBO...............................80
CEDAR RAWS.............................64
SOUTH FORK RAWS........................48
WILKINSON RAWS.........................47

...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
SALEM AIRPORT..........................48
ALOHA..................................48
MCMINNVILLE AIRPORT....................46
SHERWOOD...............................46
PORTLAND AIRPORT.......................46
AURORA AIRPORT.........................46
INTERSTATE 205 AT DIVISION.............44
HILLSBORO AIRPORT......................43
FINLEY WILDLIFE REFUGE (CORVALLIS).....42
TROUTDALE AIRPORT......................41
EAGLE CREEK............................41
SCAPPOOSE..............................40
EUGENE AIRPORT.........................38
STAYTON................................38
INTERSTATE 405 AT FREMONT BRIDGE.......36

...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...
YELLOWSTONE MTN........................55
BRUSH CREEK RAWS.......................54
WANDERERS PEAK.........................54
FIELDS (NEAR OAKRIDGE).................46
HORSE CREEK RAWS.......................44
SANDY..................................36

...BUOYS...
BUOY 50 (OFF NEWPORT)..................67
BUOY 89................................64
BUOY 29 (COLUMBIA RIVER BAR)...........62

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM BROUGHT POWER OUTAGES TO THOUSANDS OF
CUSTOMERS IN NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. AT ONE
TIME...ABOUT 45000 CUSTOMERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WERE WITHOUT POWER.
MOST POWER OUTAGES WERE DUE TO DOWNED TREES TAKING OUT POWER LINES.
DOWNED TREES ALSO CAUSED ROAD CLOSURES TO A HANDFUL OF HIGHWAYS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...MAINLY UP IN THE COAST RANGE. MULTIPLE DAMAGE
REPORTS WERE ALSO RECEIVED...INCLUDING ONE OF A ROOF HAVING BEEN
BLOWN OFF THE FIRE STATION IN GEARHART OREGON.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 4:48 PM,


Washington Wind Reports

Here are some peak gusts as of 9 a.m.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 9:51 AM,


Latest Wind Reports

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT


NOUS46 KPQR 121617
PNSPQR

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 AM PST MON NOV 12 2007

...STRONG WINDS WILL BATTER COAST AND COAST RANGE TODAY ...

HIGH WINDS WILL BATTER THE COAST AND COAST RANGE TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFFSHORE OF WASHINGTON. IT WILL ALSO
BE WINDY ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE WIND
REPORTS AS OF 815 AM PST.

                                 
LOCATION                          WIND GUST (MPH) SUSTAINED (MPH)

.......WASHINGTON.......
...COAST...
TOKE POINT (NORTH END OF WILLAPA BAY)..77             58
BAY CENTER.............................70
OYSTERVILLE............................69
OCEAN PARK.............................52
LONG BEACH.............................51

...WILLAPA HILLS...
ABERNATHY MTN..........................59

...SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTERIOR...
LACENTER...............................48


......OREGON......
...NORTH COAST...
CAPE MEARES (TYPICALLY HIGH BIAS)......84             59
CLATSOP SPIT...........................84             72
GARIBALDI..............................78             63
CANNON BEACH...........................73
ROCKHOUSE..............................68
ASTORIA AIRPORT........................63
TILLAMOOK BAY TIDE GAGE................61
WARRENTON..............................58
ROCKAWAY BEACH.........................58
TILLAMOOK AIRPORT......................54
ASTORIA................................52

...CENTRAL COAST...
YAQUINA BRIDGE.........................74             51
NEWPORT JETTY..........................70             49
LINCOLN CITY...........................65
FLORENCE JETTY.........................61             49
NEWPORT AIRPORT........................58             38
ROADS END..............................55
SOUTH BEACH............................52
YACHATS................................50

...COAST RANGE...
ROCKHOUSE RAWS.........................68
MT. HEBO...............................67
CEDAR RAWS.............................64
SOUTH FORK RAWS........................48
WILKINSON RAWS.........................47

...WILLAMETTE VALLEY...
SALEM AIRPORT..........................48
MCMINNVILLE AIRPORT....................46
PORTLAND AIRPORT.......................45
FINLEY WILDLIFE REFUGE (CORVALLIS).....42
TROUTDALE AIRPORT......................41
AURORA AIRPORT.........................38
EUGENE.................................37

...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...
BRUSH CREEK RAWS.......................54
YELLOWSTONE MTN........................52

...BUOYS...
BUOY 89................................64
BUOY 50 (OFF NEWPORT)..................64
BUOY 29 (COLUMBIA RIVER BAR)...........62







-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:33 AM,


When Will It Ever Rain?

Tuesday, November 06, 2007


NOWCAST - Now that I wrote that headline, it will rain like crazy. in the mean time we have certainly enjoyed the weather lately. A week of dry weather in November is rare. This month is usually our wettest month followed by December. But never fear, computer models are still calling for some rainy days by Thursday/Friday. We'll see how long that lasts!

OUTCAST - Speaking of rain, weather observer Dan Hein sent me an e-mail Monday with this tidbit about the rainfall in Hawaii. "I was checking some rainfall numbers in Hawaii yesterday and noticed they actually had some real rain! It had been a very dry year, with Honolulu only recording 3.5" for the entire year through October. Through 8 p.m. last evening, they added another 4.02", more than doubling their total since January 1st! The marine base at Kaneohe picked up some 14 inches. I didn't see it making the news anywhere.
I called my son and he verified they had a wet night Saturday night with lots of thunder and lightning at the beginning of the storm. He lives a few miles NNW of the Pearl Harbor area. The creek behind their church was running full and very brown yesterday morning."

Some one asked me recently what the earliest snowfall in Vancouver is. A trace fell on October 31, 1955 and two inches fell on November 11, 1955. I recorded nine inches total over a couple of days in 1985 around November 22.

The 14th Annual What Will The Winter Be Like meeting of the Oregon Chapter AMS will be this Friday from 10-noon at the OMSI auditorium. Location 1945 SE Water Ave in Portland, Oregon. The public is invited. There will be five speakers this year. I will give a full report later on if you miss this event. Click Here for event info.


Arctic Report Card by NOAA. Read Here.




-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:43 PM,


Fair Weather Continues

Sunday, November 04, 2007

NOWCAST - The week will start off sunny and warm after areas of fog but with developing east winds. After Wednesday, weather systems will start getting closer and closer and the chances of rain go up. This may be the start of a pattern change back to wetter weather and maybe not. Enjoy the next few days anyway!

Okay, here is the exclusive prediction I promised I would share with you concerning the fish in Lake Sammamish near Issaquah. Jack Conover, father of Tina Conover of Camas, pulls them out of Lake Sammamish. He says he can fairly accurately predict the upcoming winter weather by the condition of the fish caught. For the past five years I have passed this prediction along and remarkably the fish have a pretty good record.

Last year there were plenty of fish but they were neither real skinny nor real fat, just about average. What started out wet and wild was offset by the last half of winter being much drier and mild. This summer Jack reports that he caught lots of fish and most of them were big and had a large fat content. Based on previous years, that means we could be in for a cold and snowy winter. Whether that trend begins early on or in the second half of winter that remains to be seen. It does appear quite often that if things start off wet and cold then it is just the opposite the latter half of winter. I can hear the school kids now wondering how many snow days we’ll have this year! Stay tuned.


-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:57 PM,