Wish I Had More to Write About
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Agate hunters enjoying the February sunshine along the Washington coast. I included my shadow just to show you there WAS sunshine!!NOWCAST - Not too much to write home about this week with a rather dull weather pattern present. Fair skies today, rain Wednesday, fair Thursday and so on. Nothing major of mix of clouds, sunshine, fog, and showers the next seven days. Temperatures will ride above seasonal norms except close to seasonal norms during any showery periods.
OUTCAST - Most locations around the great Northwest are running way behind normal for rainfall this month and it doesn't look like the rest of the week will help very much. Looking a head into March, I would think with a fairly moderate La Nina still round we should have a cool and somewhat wet month. However, the past couple of weeks has been acting more like El Nino with a split flow. So, where do we go from here? Guess we will have to wait a bit for more guidance, long range computer models that I have looked at are no help and I am not all that confident in them. So, let's take things a day or two at a time until we see a major change coming our way. Otherwise, status quo.
By now most of you have heard that fellow global warming critic George Taylor is retiring May 1. His name is flying throughout every media possible this week after his announcement last week of his voluntary retirement from the Oregon Climate Service. I want to share an article by Gordon J. Fulks, Ph.D. who lives in Corbett . He holds a doctorate in physics from the University of Chicago, Laboratory for Astrophysics and Space Research. Read Here.
George wrote in his bi-weekly column in the Democrat Herald the following:
Setting the record straight
By now you've probably heard the news. After nearly 19 years at OSU, I'm retiring.
Unfortunately, some things being said (and written) about me are either inaccurate or misleading, so I'm going to take this opportunity to set the record straight.
"Taylor calls himself the state climatologist."
Yes, and I call myself George, because that's what my parents named me. And in 1991, Steve Esbensen, chair of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at OSU, appointed me as State Climatologist.
Originally, the SC position was a federal one, but those were eliminated in 1973. States were urged to appoint their own SC, and Oregon did so in 1978. As in the case of most SC programs, Oregon's position was a faculty appointment at the land grant university. Very few were appointed by governors. Larry Gates, Allan Murphy and Kelly Redmond preceded me as SC at OSU. I arrived here in 1989, when Kelly left. In 1991, when the SC received state funding for the first time, Steve appointed me.
By the way, George Keller of OSU and legislators Cliff Trow and Tony Van Vliet were instrumental in getting funding for the office. Senator Trow sponsored the funding bill.
"Taylor doesn't believe in global warming."
Sure I do, and global cooling as well. Climate varies all the time, on a variety of time scales.
I believe that climate changes as a result of a combination of natural variations and human effects (including, but not limited to, greenhouse gases). But in my opinion, past changes in climate (in Oregon and elsewhere) are more consistent with natural variations than with increases in greenhouse gases.
That doesn't mean things won't change in the future. That doesn't mean we "shouldn't do anything." But based on looking at climate data for many years, I am convinced that the effects of things like tropical Pacific ocean conditions and solar radiation has dominated our climate, at least in the Northwest.
"Taylor was probably asked to resign."
Nope. I'm leaving on my own, and the decision was mine (in consultation with my wife, Cindy, of course). Here's why:
1. In 2003, I was diagnosed with cancer. Surgery, chemotherapy and radiation followed. Also baldness (temporarily). Things look great now. But cancer really got my attention!
2. Last summer I turned 60. That got my attention, as well.
I started wondering "shall I keep doing what I'm doing, or do something else for the rest of my career?" I decided on the latter.
I'm going to start a small consulting business. Initially, at least, I'll focus primarily on a type of storm analysis called "Probable Maximum Precipitation" (PMP).
PMP is required whenever a dam or large water containment structure is built or relicensed. PMP helps determine the maximum flood that might be expected, and this in turn determines how big and strong the dam needs to be. A very important application of weather and climate, for sure, and not many scientists are qualified to assess PMP. That will probably keep me busy.
And I'm hoping for other new and interesting pursuits. I may be retiring from OSU, but not from weather and climate studies.
And MVS Editor Hasso Hering has invited me to continue writing my bi-weekly columns, something I have very much enjoyed.
It's been a fun ride, but I'm not going to stop riding. I'm just going to get on a different horse.
Chuckle Quote- "I want to be a weatherman. Seriously, who else gets to be so wrong so often and not get fired? " How many times have I heard this one? Too many thanks.
Love is spelled S-N-O-W- Read here
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 8:52 AM,
Borrowed From El Nino - Split Flow
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
"Ocean meets the Ocean" My granddaughter, Ocean Ann, walks along the beach Saturday afternoon as the sun sets at Ocean Shores, WA. High pressure and split flow has given us some pleasant February weather.
NOWCAST- What looked like a wetter and cooler week now looks like a much drier and not so cold week. No complaint here! Therefore, just a gradual snow melt in the mountains below 5-6,000 feet which is good news. Most energy from incoming storms will be heading to northern California a pattern we see quite often with El Nino instead of La Nina. So, chance of showers later Thursday and Friday and again by Sunday. Saturday may be rather nice with highs at 60 degrees. Otherwise, lows in 30's, highs in 50's.
OUTCAST - It appears we will end up the month below average if we don't get some good rains next week. Long range models do bring colder and wetter weather by months end. There is a good mass of arctic air forecast to move over the north pole into BC next week. Active weather with low freezing levels may return in early March. This is Canada's coldest winter since 1994 so far.
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 3:37 PM,
Taste of Spring Perhaps
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Hey, look at the rainbow! I took this at 3:30 pm Wednesday looking northeast. A sure sign of spring for sure. Not a bad photo considering taken from my cell phone with my arm out the window (I was stopped, don't worry).
NOWCAST - Slowly (big on slowly) clearing skies on Friday lead the way for a dry and mild weekend and President's Day as well. So possible frost at night and some low clouds and fog here nd there decreasing as the weekend wears on with slight offshore flow. Highs getting to 60 degrees or better over the weekend. Lows in the 30's.
OUTCAST - Enjoy the next few days as we gradually clear and warm up a bit. The crystal ball for next week shows clouds and rain coming back with perhaps a few days of heavy rain and more mountain snow at pass levels and above. I think March will roar in like a lion and be cool and somewhat wet. Look for some violent weather in the mid section of the country with more severe weather and tornadoes. Could be an active month.
I wonder what else will begin to disappear as things change around us? With cell phones, phone booths are few and far between. With GPS units so popular and now becoming essential, will paper road maps and the Rand McNally Road Atlas become a thing of the past? And will neckties become an accessory of the past succumbing to the climate change as well? Open collar shirts allowing one to breathe as the air temperature goes up?
Of course we know that global climate change doesn't necessarily mean warmer for everyone. But more extreme weather according to experts. All of the record cold this winter round the world is being blamed on La Nina and the extremes caused by global warming. How can all this be true? If it snowed in the Middle East where it has not for over 50 years, why did it 50 years ago? What about all the Cascade snows this winter. Global climate change bring more rain fall to mountains and less snow. What's up with that? Ah, food for thought isn't it? Wait 5 or 10 years and we will have the answer.
Happy Valentine's Day to you! I hope you saw red today in the form of flowers, sweet kisses and hugs, or perhaps a big red heart box full of chocolates!
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 12:29 PM,
Back To Work, Back To Rain, Back To Normal?
Monday, February 04, 2008NOWCAST - Cloudy skies intermittent light rain increasing tomorrow with seasonal temperatures running mid 30's to mid 40's. Breezy Tuesday.
OUTCAST - It will be wet, sometimes very wet the next couple of weeks at least. Snow levels rise this week with snow only above 2500-3000 feet and next week rise further to 4000-6000 feet. The jet stream will oscillate back and forth from Washington to Oregon with a let up in heavy rains allowing a 24-36 hour respite in between. This may be the saving grace from serious flooding. There is a lot of snow pack below 3500 feet and a good share will begin to run off later this week after it absorbs as much rain as it can. The flow of air driving weather systems will be more from the west than the north-northwest and milder conditions will prevail. Still no sign of any south-southwest flow causing major flooding. Rivers will get high but should for the most part stay within their banks but some local flooding possible in the usual places. It will be touchy. Snow pack in the higher locations pass levels and above will continue to build with excellent water content. Depths have surpassed 200 inches in the Cascades.
Yes Madam Governor- I had to chuckle more than once after last weeks declaration of a SNOW emergency for several Washington counties including Clark County by our governor Christine. This comes on the heels the week before when she was leading committee discussions on global warming/climate change and how our great state was going to cope with it. There is probably more snow on the planet than there has been for decades. Every region and country is plagued with bitter cold and snow even in the Mideast. Flights canceled in Israel?
Help Please! - There is so much snow on the ground in Spokane County that they have asked for help as far away as Oregon. There are simply not enough road graders available as other areas are in dire need themselves. It is the fourth snowiest January on record in Spokane. Snow fall records are piling up everywhere around the Northwest and are the deepest in many areas in 30-50 years.
A blizzard lasting more than two weeks and the longest in 100 years, the coldest in 50 years, China gets clobbered. Of course it is just an anomaly caused by La Nina and global warming continues on. Read here.
I-90 reopens . . .again. this is the worse snow situation in over 30 years some claim. Snow is piled 12 feet high and blocks snowblowers from throwing it. Helicopter dropped explosives to prevent more avalanches. And more on the way for the Washington Cascades.
Double the usual snow in the Washington Cascades. Read Here.
OWSC NEWS - The January issue of the newsletter summarizes their conclusions of the early December heavy precipitation event, includes a month-to-month summary of the 2007 weather and climate, and an update on the current seasonal outlook.
Fishermen are getting crabby - Read Here
-- posted by Pat Timm @ 2:02 PM,
